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Politics·Us Government

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

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Politics·Us Government

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?

$93,512 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$93,512 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31, 2026

$30,976 Vol.

1%

June 30, 2026

$2,354 Vol.

7%

December 31, 2026

$1,443 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.House Speaker Mike Johnson faces negligible near-term ouster risk, with traders pricing just 1% odds of removal by March 31 amid an intensifying partial DHS shutdown. Over the past week, Johnson rallied House Republicans to reject a Senate-passed funding bill that zeroed out ICE and CBP border operations, instead advancing a 60-day stopgap—earning conservative praise while drawing Democratic fire for prolonging airport delays and furloughs. No motion to vacate has emerged in the last 30 days, contrasting prior 2024 challenges he survived via bipartisan votes. Year-end odds at 40% Yes reflect the GOP's slim majority, midterm reelection pressures including Johnson's own Louisiana race, and looming fiscal deadlines like debt ceiling talks upon Congress's post-recess return around April 11.

House Speaker Mike Johnson faces negligible near-term ouster risk, with traders pricing just 1% odds of removal by March 31 amid an intensifying partial DHS shutdown. Over the past week, Johnson rallied House Republicans to reject a Senate-passed funding bill that zeroed out ICE and CBP border operations, instead advancing a 60-day stopgap—earning conservative praise while drawing Democratic fire for prolonging airport delays and furloughs. No motion to vacate has emerged in the last 30 days, contrasting prior 2024 challenges he survived via bipartisan votes. Year-end odds at 40% Yes reflect the GOP's slim majority, midterm reelection pressures including Johnson's own Louisiana race, and looming fiscal deadlines like debt ceiling talks upon Congress's post-recess return around April 11.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.House Speaker Mike Johnson faces negligible near-term ouster risk, with traders pricing just 1% odds of removal by March 31 amid an intensifying partial DHS shutdown. Over the past week, Johnson rallied House Republicans to reject a Senate-passed funding bill that zeroed out ICE and CBP border operations, instead advancing a 60-day stopgap—earning conservative praise while drawing Democratic fire for prolonging airport delays and furloughs. No motion to vacate has emerged in the last 30 days, contrasting prior 2024 challenges he survived via bipartisan votes. Year-end odds at 40% Yes reflect the GOP's slim majority, midterm reelection pressures including Johnson's own Louisiana race, and looming fiscal deadlines like debt ceiling talks upon Congress's post-recess return around April 11.

House Speaker Mike Johnson faces negligible near-term ouster risk, with traders pricing just 1% odds of removal by March 31 amid an intensifying partial DHS shutdown. Over the past week, Johnson rallied House Republicans to reject a Senate-passed funding bill that zeroed out ICE and CBP border operations, instead advancing a 60-day stopgap—earning conservative praise while drawing Democratic fire for prolonging airport delays and furloughs. No motion to vacate has emerged in the last 30 days, contrasting prior 2024 challenges he survived via bipartisan votes. Year-end odds at 40% Yes reflect the GOP's slim majority, midterm reelection pressures including Johnson's own Louisiana race, and looming fiscal deadlines like debt ceiling talks upon Congress's post-recess return around April 11.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 40%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?" has generated $93.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.