The open MI-10 House seat, vacated by Republican incumbent John James for his gubernatorial bid, has trader consensus favoring Democrats at 52.5% amid early polling edges in this R+3 battleground district spanning Macomb and Oakland counties. A March 15-16 Strategic National poll showed the GOP primary fragmented, with Mike Bouchard at 29%, Robert Lulgjuraj at 11%, and 47% undecided, signaling no clear frontrunner ahead of the April 21 filing deadline. Public Policy Polling's January survey found Democratic prosecutor Christina Hines leading Bouchard 44%-42% in a general matchup—the only Dem with such an advantage—while Eric Chung and Tim Greimel trailed narrowly. These dynamics, alongside competitive fundraising led by Chung ($716K cash-on-hand) and Lulgjuraj ($765K), position the August 4 primaries as pivotal before the November 3 general.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMI-10 House Election Winner
MI-10 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
53%
Republican Party
44%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
53%
Republican Party
$206 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open MI-10 House seat, vacated by Republican incumbent John James for his gubernatorial bid, has trader consensus favoring Democrats at 52.5% amid early polling edges in this R+3 battleground district spanning Macomb and Oakland counties. A March 15-16 Strategic National poll showed the GOP primary fragmented, with Mike Bouchard at 29%, Robert Lulgjuraj at 11%, and 47% undecided, signaling no clear frontrunner ahead of the April 21 filing deadline. Public Policy Polling's January survey found Democratic prosecutor Christina Hines leading Bouchard 44%-42% in a general matchup—the only Dem with such an advantage—while Eric Chung and Tim Greimel trailed narrowly. These dynamics, alongside competitive fundraising led by Chung ($716K cash-on-hand) and Lulgjuraj ($765K), position the August 4 primaries as pivotal before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Volume
$206End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open MI-10 House seat, vacated by Republican incumbent John James for his gubernatorial bid, has trader consensus favoring Democrats at 52.5% amid early polling edges in this R+3 battleground district spanning Macomb and Oakland counties. A March 15-16 Strategic National poll showed the GOP primary fragmented, with Mike Bouchard at 29%, Robert Lulgjuraj at 11%, and 47% undecided, signaling no clear frontrunner ahead of the April 21 filing deadline. Public Policy Polling's January survey found Democratic prosecutor Christina Hines leading Bouchard 44%-42% in a general matchup—the only Dem with such an advantage—while Eric Chung and Tim Greimel trailed narrowly. These dynamics, alongside competitive fundraising led by Chung ($716K cash-on-hand) and Lulgjuraj ($765K), position the August 4 primaries as pivotal before the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$206End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open MI-10 House seat, vacated by Republican incumbent John James for his gubernatorial bid, has trader consensus favoring Democrats at 52.5% amid early polling edges in this R+3 battleground district spanning Macomb and Oakland counties. A March 15-16 Strategic National poll showed the GOP primary fragmented, with Mike Bouchard at 29%, Robert Lulgjuraj at 11%, and 47% undecided, signaling no clear frontrunner ahead of the April 21 filing deadline. Public Policy Polling's January survey found Democratic prosecutor Christina Hines leading Bouchard 44%-42% in a general matchup—the only Dem with such an advantage—while Eric Chung and Tim Greimel trailed narrowly. These dynamics, alongside competitive fundraising led by Chung ($716K cash-on-hand) and Lulgjuraj ($765K), position the August 4 primaries as pivotal before the November 3 general.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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