Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin (D) dominates trader consensus in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a D+30 seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, due to his strong reelection filing in February, overwhelming fundraising advantage with over $6 million cash on hand, and history of 77% general election margins. The February 24 filing deadline revealed weak Republican primary challengers, including 2024 nominee Cheryl Riley, amid minimal opposition fundraising. With the June 23 primaries approaching, odds reflect the district's heavy Democratic lean in Montgomery County suburbs and lack of competitive threats. Scenarios to shift this include a Raskin primary upset, major scandal, health issues, or an extreme national Republican wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMD-08 House Election Winner
MD-08 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin (D) dominates trader consensus in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a D+30 seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, due to his strong reelection filing in February, overwhelming fundraising advantage with over $6 million cash on hand, and history of 77% general election margins. The February 24 filing deadline revealed weak Republican primary challengers, including 2024 nominee Cheryl Riley, amid minimal opposition fundraising. With the June 23 primaries approaching, odds reflect the district's heavy Democratic lean in Montgomery County suburbs and lack of competitive threats. Scenarios to shift this include a Raskin primary upset, major scandal, health issues, or an extreme national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin (D) dominates trader consensus in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a D+30 seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, due to his strong reelection filing in February, overwhelming fundraising advantage with over $6 million cash on hand, and history of 77% general election margins. The February 24 filing deadline revealed weak Republican primary challengers, including 2024 nominee Cheryl Riley, amid minimal opposition fundraising. With the June 23 primaries approaching, odds reflect the district's heavy Democratic lean in Montgomery County suburbs and lack of competitive threats. Scenarios to shift this include a Raskin primary upset, major scandal, health issues, or an extreme national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jamie Raskin (D) dominates trader consensus in Maryland's 8th Congressional District, a D+30 seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report, due to his strong reelection filing in February, overwhelming fundraising advantage with over $6 million cash on hand, and history of 77% general election margins. The February 24 filing deadline revealed weak Republican primary challengers, including 2024 nominee Cheryl Riley, amid minimal opposition fundraising. With the June 23 primaries approaching, odds reflect the district's heavy Democratic lean in Montgomery County suburbs and lack of competitive threats. Scenarios to shift this include a Raskin primary upset, major scandal, health issues, or an extreme national Republican wave.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions