Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero tracked asteroids on collision courses this year, alongside historical rarity of such airbursts—comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occurring roughly once every few years. Recent March 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton bolide over Ohio (~1kt energy equivalent) and smaller events over Texas and California, boosted fireball reports 63% above average in Q1 but none surpassed the 10kt threshold per infrasound data, stabilizing odds. Key catalysts include ongoing NEO surveys and potential surprises from undetected small objects, with NEO Surveyor telescope advancements enhancing detection ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$141,016 Vol.
$141,016 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$141,016 Vol.
$141,016 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero tracked asteroids on collision courses this year, alongside historical rarity of such airbursts—comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occurring roughly once every few years. Recent March 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton bolide over Ohio (~1kt energy equivalent) and smaller events over Texas and California, boosted fireball reports 63% above average in Q1 but none surpassed the 10kt threshold per infrasound data, stabilizing odds. Key catalysts include ongoing NEO surveys and potential surprises from undetected small objects, with NEO Surveyor telescope advancements enhancing detection ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$141,016End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero tracked asteroids on collision courses this year, alongside historical rarity of such airbursts—comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occurring roughly once every few years. Recent March 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton bolide over Ohio (~1kt energy equivalent) and smaller events over Texas and California, boosted fireball reports 63% above average in Q1 but none surpassed the 10kt threshold per infrasound data, stabilizing odds. Key catalysts include ongoing NEO surveys and potential surprises from undetected small objects, with NEO Surveyor telescope advancements enhancing detection ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$141,016End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 80.5% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming zero tracked asteroids on collision courses this year, alongside historical rarity of such airbursts—comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occurring roughly once every few years. Recent March 2026 fireballs, including a 7-ton bolide over Ohio (~1kt energy equivalent) and smaller events over Texas and California, boosted fireball reports 63% above average in Q1 but none surpassed the 10kt threshold per infrasound data, stabilizing odds. Key catalysts include ongoing NEO surveys and potential surprises from undetected small objects, with NEO Surveyor telescope advancements enhancing detection ahead of year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions