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Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

Market icon
Politics·France

Lecornu out as French PM by...?

$314,425 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$314,425 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30, 2026

$16,870 Vol.

10%

December 31, 2026

$4,115 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sébastien Lecornu remains France's Prime Minister after securing the 2026 budget in February via repeated use of Article 49.3, surviving at least six no-confidence motions from far-left and far-right opposition in the hung National Assembly. The government's minority status, stemming from 2024 snap elections, sustains fragility despite recent stability. Municipal elections on March 15 and 22 yielded far-right gains in some areas and re-elections for key mayors, but elicited criticism of Lecornu's low profile during the campaign. Upcoming parliamentary debates on social security or other bills could trigger fresh no-confidence votes, while President Macron weighs potential reshuffles or dissolution ahead of 2027 presidential race.

Sébastien Lecornu remains France's Prime Minister after securing the 2026 budget in February via repeated use of Article 49.3, surviving at least six no-confidence motions from far-left and far-right opposition in the hung National Assembly. The government's minority status, stemming from 2024 snap elections, sustains fragility despite recent stability. Municipal elections on March 15 and 22 yielded far-right gains in some areas and re-elections for key mayors, but elicited criticism of Lecornu's low profile during the campaign. Upcoming parliamentary debates on social security or other bills could trigger fresh no-confidence votes, while President Macron weighs potential reshuffles or dissolution ahead of 2027 presidential race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sébastien Lecornu remains France's Prime Minister after securing the 2026 budget in February via repeated use of Article 49.3, surviving at least six no-confidence motions from far-left and far-right opposition in the hung National Assembly. The government's minority status, stemming from 2024 snap elections, sustains fragility despite recent stability. Municipal elections on March 15 and 22 yielded far-right gains in some areas and re-elections for key mayors, but elicited criticism of Lecornu's low profile during the campaign. Upcoming parliamentary debates on social security or other bills could trigger fresh no-confidence votes, while President Macron weighs potential reshuffles or dissolution ahead of 2027 presidential race.

Sébastien Lecornu remains France's Prime Minister after securing the 2026 budget in February via repeated use of Article 49.3, surviving at least six no-confidence motions from far-left and far-right opposition in the hung National Assembly. The government's minority status, stemming from 2024 snap elections, sustains fragility despite recent stability. Municipal elections on March 15 and 22 yielded far-right gains in some areas and re-elections for key mayors, but elicited criticism of Lecornu's low profile during the campaign. Upcoming parliamentary debates on social security or other bills could trigger fresh no-confidence votes, while President Macron weighs potential reshuffles or dissolution ahead of 2027 presidential race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2026" at 36%, followed by "June 30, 2026" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" has generated $314.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lecornu out as French PM by...?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" is "December 31, 2026" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30, 2026" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lecornu out as French PM by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.