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Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Market icon

Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?

<20 100.0%

20-39 <1%

40-59 <1%

60-79 <1%

Polymarket

$41,744 Vol.

<20 100.0%

20-39 <1%

40-59 <1%

60-79 <1%

Polymarket

$41,744 Vol.

<20

$16,256 Vol.

Yes

20-39

$8,086 Vol.

No

40-59

$2,499 Vol.

No

60-79

$2,358 Vol.

No

80-99

$1,614 Vol.

No

100-119

$2,288 Vol.

No

120-139

$2,060 Vol.

No

140-159

$1,722 Vol.

No

160-179

$1,697 Vol.

No

180-199

$1,507 Vol.

No

200+

$1,655 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 27, 12:00 PM ET and April 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 20 posts by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) from March 27 to April 3, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Leader's death in early March amid heightened Iran-Israel tensions, which shifted the account to sporadic reposts of archival statements under new leadership oversight, likely involving son Mojtaba Khamenei. A single post appeared on April 3, recirculating a 2020 critique of Western "savagery," underscoring minimal activity consistent with prior weeks' Polymarket trackers. With the resolution window closing today and no surge in output, the commanding position stems from this post-transition dormancy pattern. Realistic challenges would require an improbable flurry of historical content dumps or urgent diplomatic announcements in the final hours.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 27, 12:00 PM ET and April 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$41,744
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 27, 12:00 PM ET and April 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 27, 12:00 PM ET and April 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 20 posts by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's official X account (@khamenei_ir) from March 27 to April 3, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Leader's death in early March amid heightened Iran-Israel tensions, which shifted the account to sporadic reposts of archival statements under new leadership oversight, likely involving son Mojtaba Khamenei. A single post appeared on April 3, recirculating a 2020 critique of Western "savagery," underscoring minimal activity consistent with prior weeks' Polymarket trackers. With the resolution window closing today and no surge in output, the commanding position stems from this post-transition dormancy pattern. Realistic challenges would require an improbable flurry of historical content dumps or urgent diplomatic announcements in the final hours.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 27, 12:00 PM ET and April 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.

Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.

Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).

The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$41,744
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between March 27, 12:00 PM ET and April 3, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<20" at 100%, followed by "20-39" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?" has generated $41.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?" is "<20" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20-39" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Khamenei # posts March 27 - April 3, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.