Trader sentiment on Iran directly targeting commercial or military shipping hinges on escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, where Tehran has imposed up to $2 million fees on select vessels, announced closure, and reduced tanker traffic by over 50% as shown in recent timelapses. Yesterday, Iran's military claimed a strike on a US logistics vessel near Omani port Salalah, marking the latest unverified escalation after prior attacks on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman since early March. Houthi forces, Iran-aligned, signaled readiness to intensify Red Sea disruptions via Bab al-Mandeb, while President Trump's 48-hour ultimatums for reopening the strait heighten risks of retaliatory naval actions or diplomatic breakthroughs that could sway outcomes before April deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$92,448 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 26
1%
March 27
1%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
2%
$92,448 Vol.
March 26
$5,945 Vol.
1%
March 27
$20,834 Vol.
1%
March 28
$7,249 Vol.
2%
March 29
$7,904 Vol.
5%
March 30
$7,953 Vol.
7%
March 31
$689 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Trader sentiment on Iran directly targeting commercial or military shipping hinges on escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, where Tehran has imposed up to $2 million fees on select vessels, announced closure, and reduced tanker traffic by over 50% as shown in recent timelapses. Yesterday, Iran's military claimed a strike on a US logistics vessel near Omani port Salalah, marking the latest unverified escalation after prior attacks on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman since early March. Houthi forces, Iran-aligned, signaled readiness to intensify Red Sea disruptions via Bab al-Mandeb, while President Trump's 48-hour ultimatums for reopening the strait heighten risks of retaliatory naval actions or diplomatic breakthroughs that could sway outcomes before April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$92,448End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Trader sentiment on Iran directly targeting commercial or military shipping hinges on escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, where Tehran has imposed up to $2 million fees on select vessels, announced closure, and reduced tanker traffic by over 50% as shown in recent timelapses. Yesterday, Iran's military claimed a strike on a US logistics vessel near Omani port Salalah, marking the latest unverified escalation after prior attacks on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman since early March. Houthi forces, Iran-aligned, signaled readiness to intensify Red Sea disruptions via Bab al-Mandeb, while President Trump's 48-hour ultimatums for reopening the strait heighten risks of retaliatory naval actions or diplomatic breakthroughs that could sway outcomes before April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$92,448End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Iran directly targeting commercial or military shipping hinges on escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, where Tehran has imposed up to $2 million fees on select vessels, announced closure, and reduced tanker traffic by over 50% as shown in recent timelapses. Yesterday, Iran's military claimed a strike on a US logistics vessel near Omani port Salalah, marking the latest unverified escalation after prior attacks on merchant ships in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman since early March. Houthi forces, Iran-aligned, signaled readiness to intensify Red Sea disruptions via Bab al-Mandeb, while President Trump's 48-hour ultimatums for reopening the strait heighten risks of retaliatory naval actions or diplomatic breakthroughs that could sway outcomes before April deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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