Trader consensus prices high probabilities—98% for Bahrain and Kuwait, 94% for UAE—reflecting Iran's verified missile and drone strikes on these Gulf states since the US-Israel war began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026. Retaliatory barrages, including six against Israel and waves targeting GCC oil infrastructure and US bases by March 28, have driven escalation, with Oman at 53% and Qatar at 46% amid disputed hits. Lower odds for distant targets like Pakistan (32%) or Europe (<5%) signal focus on regional proxies. Upcoming US troop deployments, Gulf self-defense considerations, and Pakistan-hosted talks could prompt further Iranian actions or de-escalation before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$151,775 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
99%
Kuwait
98%
UAE
94%
Iraq
83%
Qatar
50%
Pakistan
32%
Syria
30%
Lebanon
30%
Oman
29%
Azerbaijan
9%
Cyprus
7%
Turkey
7%
UK
6%
Yemen
5%
India
4%
Germany
4%
Ukraine
3%
Poland
3%
Italy
3%
Georgia
3%
Afghanistan
3%
France
2%
Spain
2%
Armenia
2%
Hungary
1%
$151,775 Vol.
Bahrain
$8,631 Vol.
99%
Kuwait
$2,723 Vol.
98%
UAE
$2,620 Vol.
94%
Iraq
$1,032 Vol.
83%
Qatar
$2,949 Vol.
50%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
32%
Syria
$283 Vol.
30%
Lebanon
$976 Vol.
30%
Oman
$3,287 Vol.
29%
Azerbaijan
$673 Vol.
9%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
7%
Turkey
$283 Vol.
7%
UK
$2,237 Vol.
6%
Yemen
$527 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,281 Vol.
4%
Ukraine
$1,520 Vol.
3%
Poland
$30,203 Vol.
3%
Italy
$110 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$867 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
France
$2,936 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$655 Vol.
2%
Hungary
$12,925 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices high probabilities—98% for Bahrain and Kuwait, 94% for UAE—reflecting Iran's verified missile and drone strikes on these Gulf states since the US-Israel war began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026. Retaliatory barrages, including six against Israel and waves targeting GCC oil infrastructure and US bases by March 28, have driven escalation, with Oman at 53% and Qatar at 46% amid disputed hits. Lower odds for distant targets like Pakistan (32%) or Europe (<5%) signal focus on regional proxies. Upcoming US troop deployments, Gulf self-defense considerations, and Pakistan-hosted talks could prompt further Iranian actions or de-escalation before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$151,775End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus prices high probabilities—98% for Bahrain and Kuwait, 94% for UAE—reflecting Iran's verified missile and drone strikes on these Gulf states since the US-Israel war began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026. Retaliatory barrages, including six against Israel and waves targeting GCC oil infrastructure and US bases by March 28, have driven escalation, with Oman at 53% and Qatar at 46% amid disputed hits. Lower odds for distant targets like Pakistan (32%) or Europe (<5%) signal focus on regional proxies. Upcoming US troop deployments, Gulf self-defense considerations, and Pakistan-hosted talks could prompt further Iranian actions or de-escalation before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$151,775End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Outcome proposed: Yes
Disputed
Final review
Trader consensus prices high probabilities—98% for Bahrain and Kuwait, 94% for UAE—reflecting Iran's verified missile and drone strikes on these Gulf states since the US-Israel war began with surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026. Retaliatory barrages, including six against Israel and waves targeting GCC oil infrastructure and US bases by March 28, have driven escalation, with Oman at 53% and Qatar at 46% amid disputed hits. Lower odds for distant targets like Pakistan (32%) or Europe (<5%) signal focus on regional proxies. Upcoming US troop deployments, Gulf self-defense considerations, and Pakistan-hosted talks could prompt further Iranian actions or de-escalation before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions