Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—mostly intercepted with U.S., U.K., and Jordanian assistance—marked its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting a limited Israeli airstrike on an Isfahan airbase April 19. Tehran declared the exchange concluded absent further provocation, while Jerusalem emphasized restraint but readiness to respond. Diplomatic de-escalation efforts, including U.S. mediation and UN calls for calm, have held amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. No new direct actions reported in the last 10 days; traders monitor Gaza ceasefire talks, potential Israeli operations in Rafah, and Iranian rhetoric for escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$17,388 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Israel
100%
Kuwait
90%
UAE
88%
Saudi Arabia
85%
Bahrain
83%
Jordan
68%
Qatar
61%
Syria
38%
Iraq
37%
Lebanon
37%
Yemen
23%
Oman
15%
Azerbaijan
15%
Turkey
12%
Pakistan
11%
Cyprus
7%
UK
6%
Georgia
5%
Italy
4%
Poland
4%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
India
2%
Ukraine
2%
Spain
2%
Germany
2%
Armenia
2%
$17,388 Vol.
Israel
$6,717 Vol.
100%
Kuwait
$761 Vol.
90%
UAE
$199 Vol.
88%
Saudi Arabia
$0 Vol.
85%
Bahrain
$0 Vol.
83%
Jordan
$0 Vol.
68%
Qatar
$212 Vol.
61%
Syria
$166 Vol.
38%
Iraq
$82 Vol.
37%
Lebanon
$315 Vol.
37%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
23%
Oman
$76 Vol.
15%
Azerbaijan
$333 Vol.
15%
Turkey
$262 Vol.
12%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Cyprus
$82 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,562 Vol.
6%
Georgia
$440 Vol.
5%
Italy
$100 Vol.
4%
Poland
$1,221 Vol.
4%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$50 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$1,331 Vol.
3%
India
$275 Vol.
2%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,652 Vol.
2%
Germany
$441 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$561 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—mostly intercepted with U.S., U.K., and Jordanian assistance—marked its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting a limited Israeli airstrike on an Isfahan airbase April 19. Tehran declared the exchange concluded absent further provocation, while Jerusalem emphasized restraint but readiness to respond. Diplomatic de-escalation efforts, including U.S. mediation and UN calls for calm, have held amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. No new direct actions reported in the last 10 days; traders monitor Gaza ceasefire talks, potential Israeli operations in Rafah, and Iranian rhetoric for escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$17,388End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—mostly intercepted with U.S., U.K., and Jordanian assistance—marked its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting a limited Israeli airstrike on an Isfahan airbase April 19. Tehran declared the exchange concluded absent further provocation, while Jerusalem emphasized restraint but readiness to respond. Diplomatic de-escalation efforts, including U.S. mediation and UN calls for calm, have held amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. No new direct actions reported in the last 10 days; traders monitor Gaza ceasefire talks, potential Israeli operations in Rafah, and Iranian rhetoric for escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$17,388End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—mostly intercepted with U.S., U.K., and Jordanian assistance—marked its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting a limited Israeli airstrike on an Isfahan airbase April 19. Tehran declared the exchange concluded absent further provocation, while Jerusalem emphasized restraint but readiness to respond. Diplomatic de-escalation efforts, including U.S. mediation and UN calls for calm, have held amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen. No new direct actions reported in the last 10 days; traders monitor Gaza ceasefire talks, potential Israeli operations in Rafah, and Iranian rhetoric for escalation signals before April 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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