Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, where she captured over 40% of the vote with significant backing from an AIPAC-funded super PAC, has solidified her as the nominee in this open seat vacated by Rep. Robin Kelly's Senate bid. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean—reflected in a Cook PVI of D+19 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles—positions her as the overwhelming favorite against Republican Mike Noack, who advanced unopposed. With no public polling for the November 3 general election and quiet post-primary developments, traders price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Scenarios like a major scandal, legal issues, or a strong Republican national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-02 House Election Winner
IL-02 House Election Winner
$27,092 Vol.
$27,092 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$27,092 Vol.
$27,092 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,673 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$18,419 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, where she captured over 40% of the vote with significant backing from an AIPAC-funded super PAC, has solidified her as the nominee in this open seat vacated by Rep. Robin Kelly's Senate bid. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean—reflected in a Cook PVI of D+19 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles—positions her as the overwhelming favorite against Republican Mike Noack, who advanced unopposed. With no public polling for the November 3 general election and quiet post-primary developments, traders price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Scenarios like a major scandal, legal issues, or a strong Republican national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$27,092End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, where she captured over 40% of the vote with significant backing from an AIPAC-funded super PAC, has solidified her as the nominee in this open seat vacated by Rep. Robin Kelly's Senate bid. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean—reflected in a Cook PVI of D+19 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles—positions her as the overwhelming favorite against Republican Mike Noack, who advanced unopposed. With no public polling for the November 3 general election and quiet post-primary developments, traders price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Scenarios like a major scandal, legal issues, or a strong Republican national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,092End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller's victory in the March 17 Democratic primary, where she captured over 40% of the vote with significant backing from an AIPAC-funded super PAC, has solidified her as the nominee in this open seat vacated by Rep. Robin Kelly's Senate bid. The district's strong Democratic partisan lean—reflected in a Cook PVI of D+19 and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles—positions her as the overwhelming favorite against Republican Mike Noack, who advanced unopposed. With no public polling for the November 3 general election and quiet post-primary developments, traders price Democrats at 92.5% implied probability. Scenarios like a major scandal, legal issues, or a strong Republican national midterm wave could narrow the gap, though historical base rates for safe seats suggest stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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