Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary—defeating challengers including Matt Conroy—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, reflecting the district's longstanding solid Democratic lean in Chicago's North Side and northern suburbs. Quigley, representing the wealthiest district in Illinois since 2009, benefits from incumbency advantages and superior fundraising in a seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a North Shore small business owner who won his primary, faces steep historical barriers in this blue stronghold ahead of the November 3 general election. While odds imply low upset risk, scenarios like a major scandal, health event, or national Republican wave could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,356 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$1,465 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary—defeating challengers including Matt Conroy—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, reflecting the district's longstanding solid Democratic lean in Chicago's North Side and northern suburbs. Quigley, representing the wealthiest district in Illinois since 2009, benefits from incumbency advantages and superior fundraising in a seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a North Shore small business owner who won his primary, faces steep historical barriers in this blue stronghold ahead of the November 3 general election. While odds imply low upset risk, scenarios like a major scandal, health event, or national Republican wave could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,821End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary—defeating challengers including Matt Conroy—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, reflecting the district's longstanding solid Democratic lean in Chicago's North Side and northern suburbs. Quigley, representing the wealthiest district in Illinois since 2009, benefits from incumbency advantages and superior fundraising in a seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a North Shore small business owner who won his primary, faces steep historical barriers in this blue stronghold ahead of the November 3 general election. While odds imply low upset risk, scenarios like a major scandal, health event, or national Republican wave could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,821End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley's decisive victory in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary—defeating challengers including Matt Conroy—has solidified trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic Party in the IL-05 House race, reflecting the district's longstanding solid Democratic lean in Chicago's North Side and northern suburbs. Quigley, representing the wealthiest district in Illinois since 2009, benefits from incumbency advantages and superior fundraising in a seat rated Solid D by Cook Political Report. Republican nominee Tommy Hanson, a North Shore small business owner who won his primary, faces steep historical barriers in this blue stronghold ahead of the November 3 general election. While odds imply low upset risk, scenarios like a major scandal, health event, or national Republican wave could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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