Incumbent Mike Quigley holds a commanding position in the Illinois 5th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic voting patterns in Chicago and surrounding suburbs, his long tenure since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured over 65% against challengers. Tommy Hanson, the Republican nominee and repeat candidate, faces structural barriers in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major events such as a significant scandal or national political realignment that alters turnout among core Democratic voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
$25,272 Vol.
$25,272 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Quigley (D)
95%
Tommy Hanson (R)
5%
$25,272 Vol.
$25,272 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Quigley (D)
$8,976 Vol.
95%
Tommy Hanson (R)
$16,296 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Quigley holds a commanding position in the Illinois 5th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic voting patterns in Chicago and surrounding suburbs, his long tenure since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured over 65% against challengers. Tommy Hanson, the Republican nominee and repeat candidate, faces structural barriers in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major events such as a significant scandal or national political realignment that alters turnout among core Democratic voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$25,272End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Mike Quigley holds a commanding position in the Illinois 5th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic voting patterns in Chicago and surrounding suburbs, his long tenure since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured over 65% against challengers. Tommy Hanson, the Republican nominee and repeat candidate, faces structural barriers in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major events such as a significant scandal or national political realignment that alters turnout among core Democratic voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,272End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mike Quigley holds a commanding position in the Illinois 5th congressional district race due to the area's consistent Democratic voting patterns in Chicago and surrounding suburbs, his long tenure since 2009, and strong primary performance where he secured over 65% against challengers. Tommy Hanson, the Republican nominee and repeat candidate, faces structural barriers in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters, with limited fundraising and no prior elected experience. The November 3 general election timeline leaves little room for late shifts absent major events such as a significant scandal or national political realignment that alters turnout among core Democratic voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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