Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley, who has held Illinois' 5th Congressional District since 2009, secured his party's nomination in the March 17 primary with 65.5% amid low challenger turnout, setting up a rematch against repeat Republican nominee Tom Hanson, whom he defeated 69%-31% in 2024. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index, highly educated North Side Chicago electorate, Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Quigley's $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March. With no recent polling or developments in the past 30 days, the market anticipates another lopsided general election on November 3. Upsets would require a major Quigley scandal, Hanson fundraising surge, or national Republican wave overwhelming the safe blue seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,410 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$1,470 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley, who has held Illinois' 5th Congressional District since 2009, secured his party's nomination in the March 17 primary with 65.5% amid low challenger turnout, setting up a rematch against repeat Republican nominee Tom Hanson, whom he defeated 69%-31% in 2024. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index, highly educated North Side Chicago electorate, Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Quigley's $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March. With no recent polling or developments in the past 30 days, the market anticipates another lopsided general election on November 3. Upsets would require a major Quigley scandal, Hanson fundraising surge, or national Republican wave overwhelming the safe blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,880End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley, who has held Illinois' 5th Congressional District since 2009, secured his party's nomination in the March 17 primary with 65.5% amid low challenger turnout, setting up a rematch against repeat Republican nominee Tom Hanson, whom he defeated 69%-31% in 2024. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index, highly educated North Side Chicago electorate, Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Quigley's $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March. With no recent polling or developments in the past 30 days, the market anticipates another lopsided general election on November 3. Upsets would require a major Quigley scandal, Hanson fundraising surge, or national Republican wave overwhelming the safe blue seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,880End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley, who has held Illinois' 5th Congressional District since 2009, secured his party's nomination in the March 17 primary with 65.5% amid low challenger turnout, setting up a rematch against repeat Republican nominee Tom Hanson, whom he defeated 69%-31% in 2024. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats reflects the district's D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index, highly educated North Side Chicago electorate, Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others, and Quigley's $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March. With no recent polling or developments in the past 30 days, the market anticipates another lopsided general election on November 3. Upsets would require a major Quigley scandal, Hanson fundraising surge, or national Republican wave overwhelming the safe blue seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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