Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, driven by a federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenging President Trump's executive order creating the $1 million "gift" program for fast-track EB-1 or EB-2 green cards, which critics argue displaces merit-based immigration pathways without congressional approval. No verified issuances or 2026 sales data have surfaced despite 70,000 applicant interests and unconfirmed late-2025 revenue claims over $1 billion, hampered by USCIS vetting, higher costs versus EB-5 alternatives, and potential injunctions. The 1-100 range at 19.4% anticipates trickle sales if courts dismiss challenges; consolidation hinges on government responses due soon, first approvals, or Commerce Department reports clarifying sales metrics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
0 30%
1-100 19.4%
101-1k 10.2%
25k-100k 9.8%
$118,937 Vol.
$118,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
30%
1-100
19%
101-1k
10%
1k-2.5k
8%
2.5k-5k
8%
5k-10k
7%
10k-25k
7%
25k-100k
10%
>100k
5%
0 30%
1-100 19.4%
101-1k 10.2%
25k-100k 9.8%
$118,937 Vol.
$118,937 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$23,864 Vol.
30%
1-100
$9,831 Vol.
19%
101-1k
$4,777 Vol.
10%
1k-2.5k
$7,225 Vol.
8%
2.5k-5k
$4,216 Vol.
8%
5k-10k
$4,525 Vol.
7%
10k-25k
$51,594 Vol.
7%
25k-100k
$4,096 Vol.
10%
>100k
$8,807 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, driven by a federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenging President Trump's executive order creating the $1 million "gift" program for fast-track EB-1 or EB-2 green cards, which critics argue displaces merit-based immigration pathways without congressional approval. No verified issuances or 2026 sales data have surfaced despite 70,000 applicant interests and unconfirmed late-2025 revenue claims over $1 billion, hampered by USCIS vetting, higher costs versus EB-5 alternatives, and potential injunctions. The 1-100 range at 19.4% anticipates trickle sales if courts dismiss challenges; consolidation hinges on government responses due soon, first approvals, or Commerce Department reports clarifying sales metrics.
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ET
Volume
$118,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, driven by a federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenging President Trump's executive order creating the $1 million "gift" program for fast-track EB-1 or EB-2 green cards, which critics argue displaces merit-based immigration pathways without congressional approval. No verified issuances or 2026 sales data have surfaced despite 70,000 applicant interests and unconfirmed late-2025 revenue claims over $1 billion, hampered by USCIS vetting, higher costs versus EB-5 alternatives, and potential injunctions. The 1-100 range at 19.4% anticipates trickle sales if courts dismiss challenges; consolidation hinges on government responses due soon, first approvals, or Commerce Department reports clarifying sales metrics.
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,937End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors zero Gold Cards sold in 2026 at 29.5% implied probability, driven by a federal lawsuit filed February 3 challenging President Trump's executive order creating the $1 million "gift" program for fast-track EB-1 or EB-2 green cards, which critics argue displaces merit-based immigration pathways without congressional approval. No verified issuances or 2026 sales data have surfaced despite 70,000 applicant interests and unconfirmed late-2025 revenue claims over $1 billion, hampered by USCIS vetting, higher costs versus EB-5 alternatives, and potential injunctions. The 1-100 range at 19.4% anticipates trickle sales if courts dismiss challenges; consolidation hinges on government responses due soon, first approvals, or Commerce Department reports clarifying sales metrics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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