Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 19°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 25, backed by official observational data from the Israel Meteorological Service recording a daytime peak of exactly 19°C at Ben Gurion Airport station amid mostly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Late-winter weather patterns prevailed, with cooler Mediterranean air masses suppressing highs after pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converged on 18–20°C ranges, aligning with March climatology averaging 19–21°C. No significant deviations occurred, such as unexpected solar heating or föhn winds. While measurement revisions are theoretically possible from quality control audits, they are exceedingly rare for settled daily records, solidifying this positioning absent new evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 25?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 25?
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$144,555 Vol.
$144,555 Vol.
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
$144,555 Vol.
$144,555 Vol.
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 19°C as Tel Aviv's highest temperature on March 25, backed by official observational data from the Israel Meteorological Service recording a daytime peak of exactly 19°C at Ben Gurion Airport station amid mostly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Late-winter weather patterns prevailed, with cooler Mediterranean air masses suppressing highs after pre-event forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models converged on 18–20°C ranges, aligning with March climatology averaging 19–21°C. No significant deviations occurred, such as unexpected solar heating or föhn winds. While measurement revisions are theoretically possible from quality control audits, they are exceedingly rare for settled daily records, solidifying this positioning absent new evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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