Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 24°C in Taipei on March 24, driven by aligned forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs peaking at 24°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. Historical March data for Taipei shows average highs around 23°C, with low variability this late in the season, reinforcing model reliability based on surface observations and radiosonde profiles. This positioning reflects minimal uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly surge or urban heat island amplification pushing temps above 25°C, though ensemble spreads indicate less than 5% probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
24°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 24°C in Taipei on March 24, driven by aligned forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs peaking at 24°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. Historical March data for Taipei shows average highs around 23°C, with low variability this late in the season, reinforcing model reliability based on surface observations and radiosonde profiles. This positioning reflects minimal uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen southerly surge or urban heat island amplification pushing temps above 25°C, though ensemble spreads indicate less than 5% probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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