Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 33°C or below (99.8% implied probability) for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 25, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime high of 31-33°C amid mild seasonal conditions. Historical March data for Lucknow shows average highs around 32°C, with current weather patterns—clear skies, low humidity, and northerly winds—aligning with this outlook from ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF. This positioning reflects low volatility in early spring temperatures, where deviations above 35°C are rare without heatwave signals. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt influx of hot southerly winds or model forecast bust, but ensemble agreement and stable upper-air patterns make such upsets improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 25?
33°C or below 99.8%
35°C <1%
37°C <1%
34°C <1%
$134,408 Vol.
$134,408 Vol.
33°C or below
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
33°C or below 99.8%
35°C <1%
37°C <1%
34°C <1%
$134,408 Vol.
$134,408 Vol.
33°C or below
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 33°C or below (99.8% implied probability) for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 25, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a daytime high of 31-33°C amid mild seasonal conditions. Historical March data for Lucknow shows average highs around 32°C, with current weather patterns—clear skies, low humidity, and northerly winds—aligning with this outlook from ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF. This positioning reflects low volatility in early spring temperatures, where deviations above 35°C are rare without heatwave signals. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt influx of hot southerly winds or model forecast bust, but ensemble agreement and stable upper-air patterns make such upsets improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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