Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature on April 2, with 20°C leading at 36% implied probability, closely followed by 21°C (29%) and 19°C (26%), as short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a daytime high near 20°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This positioning follows April 1's observed afternoon climb toward 19°C—warmer than the initial 17°C cloudy forecast—signaling a mild high-pressure ridge and rising spring solar insolation overriding variable northerly flows. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, which could cap peaks at 19°C, versus clearer intervals boosting to 21°C via urban heat island amplification; ensemble model spreads of 1-2°C underscore this, with CMA's evening update poised to refine odds ahead of resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on April 2?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 2?
20°C 37%
21°C 28%
19°C 27%
22°C 11%
$16,227 Vol.
$16,227 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
3%
19°C
27%
20°C
37%
21°C
28%
22°C
11%
23°C
2%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 37%
21°C 28%
19°C 27%
22°C 11%
$16,227 Vol.
$16,227 Vol.
Apr 2, 2026
16°C or below
$3,695 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$1,839 Vol.
1%
18°C
$1,104 Vol.
3%
19°C
$1,154 Vol.
27%
20°C
$1,184 Vol.
37%
21°C
$1,122 Vol.
28%
22°C
$905 Vol.
11%
23°C
$1,885 Vol.
2%
24°C
$684 Vol.
1%
25°C
$711 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$1,942 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature on April 2, with 20°C leading at 36% implied probability, closely followed by 21°C (29%) and 19°C (26%), as short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a daytime high near 20°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This positioning follows April 1's observed afternoon climb toward 19°C—warmer than the initial 17°C cloudy forecast—signaling a mild high-pressure ridge and rising spring solar insolation overriding variable northerly flows. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, which could cap peaks at 19°C, versus clearer intervals boosting to 21°C via urban heat island amplification; ensemble model spreads of 1-2°C underscore this, with CMA's evening update poised to refine odds ahead of resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$16,227End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature on April 2, with 20°C leading at 36% implied probability, closely followed by 21°C (29%) and 19°C (26%), as short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a daytime high near 20°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This positioning follows April 1's observed afternoon climb toward 19°C—warmer than the initial 17°C cloudy forecast—signaling a mild high-pressure ridge and rising spring solar insolation overriding variable northerly flows. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, which could cap peaks at 19°C, versus clearer intervals boosting to 21°C via urban heat island amplification; ensemble model spreads of 1-2°C underscore this, with CMA's evening update poised to refine odds ahead of resolution via official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$16,227End Date
Apr 2, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Beijing's highest temperature on April 2, with 20°C leading at 36% implied probability, closely followed by 21°C (29%) and 19°C (26%), as short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a daytime high near 20°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds. This positioning follows April 1's observed afternoon climb toward 19°C—warmer than the initial 17°C cloudy forecast—signaling a mild high-pressure ridge and rising spring solar insolation overriding variable northerly flows. Differentiating factors include cloud cover persistence, which could cap peaks at 19°C, versus clearer intervals boosting to 21°C via urban heat island amplification; ensemble model spreads of 1-2°C underscore this, with CMA's evening update poised to refine odds ahead of resolution via official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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