Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool pricing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with the dot plot projecting a median 3.4% year-end rate—implying just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, not mid-year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE near 3.0%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, while hotter-than-expected producer prices further diminished near-term easing odds. Upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC will be pivotal for any sentiment shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 87%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 6.0%
50+ bps increase 1.0%
$4,542,630 Vol.
$4,542,630 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
87%
25 bps increase
6%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 87%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 6.0%
50+ bps increase 1.0%
$4,542,630 Vol.
$4,542,630 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,361,457 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$573,325 Vol.
7%
No change
$982,862 Vol.
87%
25 bps increase
$885,674 Vol.
6%
50+ bps increase
$739,312 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool pricing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with the dot plot projecting a median 3.4% year-end rate—implying just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, not mid-year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE near 3.0%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, while hotter-than-expected producer prices further diminished near-term easing odds. Upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC will be pivotal for any sentiment shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$4,542,630End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool pricing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with the dot plot projecting a median 3.4% year-end rate—implying just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, not mid-year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE near 3.0%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, while hotter-than-expected producer prices further diminished near-term easing odds. Upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC will be pivotal for any sentiment shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,542,630End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool pricing amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% following its March 18 decision, with the dot plot projecting a median 3.4% year-end rate—implying just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, not mid-year. February CPI held at 2.4% year-over-year, core PCE near 3.0%, and unemployment ticked to 4.4%, while hotter-than-expected producer prices further diminished near-term easing odds. Upcoming April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the May FOMC will be pivotal for any sentiment shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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