Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate target at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war and elevated oil prices, have tempered rate-cut expectations, with the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Supporting data includes February CPI showing food inflation at 3.1% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 job losses, yet low continuing claims. Key upcoming catalysts: April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 87%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 5.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$4,071,064 Vol.
$4,071,064 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
87%
25 bps increase
6%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 87%
25 bps decrease 7%
25 bps increase 5.7%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$4,071,064 Vol.
$4,071,064 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$982,803 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$562,654 Vol.
7%
No change
$972,193 Vol.
87%
25 bps increase
$843,577 Vol.
6%
50+ bps increase
$713,748 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate target at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war and elevated oil prices, have tempered rate-cut expectations, with the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Supporting data includes February CPI showing food inflation at 3.1% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 job losses, yet low continuing claims. Key upcoming catalysts: April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$4,071,064End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate target at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war and elevated oil prices, have tempered rate-cut expectations, with the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Supporting data includes February CPI showing food inflation at 3.1% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 job losses, yet low continuing claims. Key upcoming catalysts: April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$4,071,064End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate target at the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance following its March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Persistent inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war and elevated oil prices, have tempered rate-cut expectations, with the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections signaling just one 25 basis point reduction sometime in 2026. Supporting data includes February CPI showing food inflation at 3.1% year-over-year and a softening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.4% amid 92,000 job losses, yet low continuing claims. Key upcoming catalysts: April 28-29 FOMC and March CPI release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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