Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and heightened geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking upside inflation pressures. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress and low private-sector job creation—evident in February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—yet the dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, aligning trader consensus with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. A sharper labor market downturn or sub-2% March CPI print, due April 10, could challenge this positioning by accelerating cut expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 96.6%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,319,381 Vol.
$37,319,381 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 96.6%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$37,319,381 Vol.
$37,319,381 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$12,953,140 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,662,976 Vol.
1%
No change
$7,765,656 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,938,351 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and heightened geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking upside inflation pressures. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress and low private-sector job creation—evident in February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—yet the dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, aligning trader consensus with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. A sharper labor market downturn or sub-2% March CPI print, due April 10, could challenge this positioning by accelerating cut expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$37,319,381End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and heightened geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking upside inflation pressures. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress and low private-sector job creation—evident in February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—yet the dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, aligning trader consensus with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. A sharper labor market downturn or sub-2% March CPI print, due April 10, could challenge this positioning by accelerating cut expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$37,319,381End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.7% implied probability for no change in the federal funds target range at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and heightened geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking upside inflation pressures. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks emphasized slower disinflation progress and low private-sector job creation—evident in February's 92,000 nonfarm payroll decline—yet the dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, aligning trader consensus with CME FedWatch odds near 95%. A sharper labor market downturn or sub-2% March CPI print, due April 10, could challenge this positioning by accelerating cut expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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