Polymarket traders price a 96.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market signals, including low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 despite a soft February nonfarm payrolls print of -92,000 jobs. Updated dot plot projections show median FOMC members anticipating just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, with Chair Powell noting slower-than-expected disinflation progress and heightened forecast uncertainty. This positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI data, due April 10, surprises hotter or labor indicators weaken sharply, prompting earlier easing expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 96.6%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$34,644,374 Vol.
$34,644,374 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 96.6%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$34,644,374 Vol.
$34,644,374 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$11,695,441 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,380,284 Vol.
1%
No change
$6,966,181 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,606,427 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 96.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market signals, including low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 despite a soft February nonfarm payrolls print of -92,000 jobs. Updated dot plot projections show median FOMC members anticipating just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, with Chair Powell noting slower-than-expected disinflation progress and heightened forecast uncertainty. This positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI data, due April 10, surprises hotter or labor indicators weaken sharply, prompting earlier easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$34,644,374End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 96.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market signals, including low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 despite a soft February nonfarm payrolls print of -92,000 jobs. Updated dot plot projections show median FOMC members anticipating just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, with Chair Powell noting slower-than-expected disinflation progress and heightened forecast uncertainty. This positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI data, due April 10, surprises hotter or labor indicators weaken sharply, prompting earlier easing expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$34,644,374End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 96.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor market signals, including low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 despite a soft February nonfarm payrolls print of -92,000 jobs. Updated dot plot projections show median FOMC members anticipating just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, with Chair Powell noting slower-than-expected disinflation progress and heightened forecast uncertainty. This positioning could shift if upcoming March CPI data, due April 10, surprises hotter or labor indicators weaken sharply, prompting earlier easing expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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