Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady amid revised-higher core PCE inflation projections to 2.7% for 2026—up from December's 2.4%—and resilient economic growth forecasts. Chair Powell emphasized persistently elevated inflation and geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict, contributing to a hawkish dot plot that slashed 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch data. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with steady labor market signals despite softer early-March jobs prints. Upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases could challenge this positioning if they reveal sharp disinflation or labor deterioration, potentially lifting cut probabilities above 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 96.5%
25+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$34,856,838 Vol.
$34,856,838 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 96.5%
25+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$34,856,838 Vol.
$34,856,838 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$11,793,694 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,412,497 Vol.
1%
No change
$7,033,681 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,617,495 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady amid revised-higher core PCE inflation projections to 2.7% for 2026—up from December's 2.4%—and resilient economic growth forecasts. Chair Powell emphasized persistently elevated inflation and geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict, contributing to a hawkish dot plot that slashed 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch data. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with steady labor market signals despite softer early-March jobs prints. Upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases could challenge this positioning if they reveal sharp disinflation or labor deterioration, potentially lifting cut probabilities above 5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$34,856,838End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady amid revised-higher core PCE inflation projections to 2.7% for 2026—up from December's 2.4%—and resilient economic growth forecasts. Chair Powell emphasized persistently elevated inflation and geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict, contributing to a hawkish dot plot that slashed 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch data. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with steady labor market signals despite softer early-March jobs prints. Upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases could challenge this positioning if they reveal sharp disinflation or labor deterioration, potentially lifting cut probabilities above 5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$34,856,838End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 96.5% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus after the March 17-18 decision to hold rates steady amid revised-higher core PCE inflation projections to 2.7% for 2026—up from December's 2.4%—and resilient economic growth forecasts. Chair Powell emphasized persistently elevated inflation and geopolitical risks like the Iran conflict, contributing to a hawkish dot plot that slashed 2026 rate cut odds to around 25% per CME FedWatch data. This skin-in-the-game sentiment aligns with steady labor market signals despite softer early-March jobs prints. Upcoming March nonfarm payrolls and CPI releases could challenge this positioning if they reveal sharp disinflation or labor deterioration, potentially lifting cut probabilities above 5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions