Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch Tool readings near 95% amid the March 18 policy statement maintaining the 3.5%-3.75% target range and dot plot forecasting just one cut later in 2026. Stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, despite softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs), supports this positioning, tempered by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating inflation concerns. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI (April 10 release) or robust nonfarm payrolls data signaling persistent labor strength, potentially prompting a reassessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 97.0%
25+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$35,845,386 Vol.
$35,845,386 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 97.0%
25+ bps increase 1.8%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$35,845,386 Vol.
$35,845,386 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$12,215,959 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,539,804 Vol.
1%
No change
$7,312,567 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,777,996 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch Tool readings near 95% amid the March 18 policy statement maintaining the 3.5%-3.75% target range and dot plot forecasting just one cut later in 2026. Stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, despite softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs), supports this positioning, tempered by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating inflation concerns. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI (April 10 release) or robust nonfarm payrolls data signaling persistent labor strength, potentially prompting a reassessment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$35,845,386End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch Tool readings near 95% amid the March 18 policy statement maintaining the 3.5%-3.75% target range and dot plot forecasting just one cut later in 2026. Stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, despite softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs), supports this positioning, tempered by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating inflation concerns. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI (April 10 release) or robust nonfarm payrolls data signaling persistent labor strength, potentially prompting a reassessment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$35,845,386End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.8% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, mirroring CME FedWatch Tool readings near 95% amid the March 18 policy statement maintaining the 3.5%-3.75% target range and dot plot forecasting just one cut later in 2026. Stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year, despite softer nonfarm payrolls (-92,000 jobs), supports this positioning, tempered by geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict elevating inflation concerns. Scenarios challenging this include hotter-than-expected March CPI (April 10 release) or robust nonfarm payrolls data signaling persistent labor strength, potentially prompting a reassessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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