Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%. Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions stoking oil prices, while noting modest labor market softening but no urgency for policy shifts. This strong positioning reflects aggregated capital betting on steady growth without imminent recession signals. Realistic challenges include sharper-than-expected downside in upcoming March nonfarm payrolls (April 3) or PCE data, or sudden disinflationary pressures prompting a 25 bps cut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 96.5%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$34,808,586 Vol.
$34,808,586 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 96.5%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$34,808,586 Vol.
$34,808,586 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$11,771,424 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,404,923 Vol.
1%
No change
$7,016,811 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,615,588 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%. Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions stoking oil prices, while noting modest labor market softening but no urgency for policy shifts. This strong positioning reflects aggregated capital betting on steady growth without imminent recession signals. Realistic challenges include sharper-than-expected downside in upcoming March nonfarm payrolls (April 3) or PCE data, or sudden disinflationary pressures prompting a 25 bps cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$34,808,586End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%. Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions stoking oil prices, while noting modest labor market softening but no urgency for policy shifts. This strong positioning reflects aggregated capital betting on steady growth without imminent recession signals. Realistic challenges include sharper-than-expected downside in upcoming March nonfarm payrolls (April 3) or PCE data, or sudden disinflationary pressures prompting a 25 bps cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$34,808,586End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the second consecutive meeting amid upward revisions to 2026 core PCE inflation forecasts to 2.7% from 2.5%. Chair Powell highlighted persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions stoking oil prices, while noting modest labor market softening but no urgency for policy shifts. This strong positioning reflects aggregated capital betting on steady growth without imminent recession signals. Realistic challenges include sharper-than-expected downside in upcoming March nonfarm payrolls (April 3) or PCE data, or sudden disinflationary pressures prompting a 25 bps cut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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