Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 96.8% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target amid steady February 2026 CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor markets, with weekly jobless claims at a low 210,000 and unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, prioritizing data-dependent caution despite oil price surges from geopolitical tensions. Realistic challenges include upside surprises in the March CPI release on April 10 or April nonfarm payrolls, which could elevate hike odds currently at 1.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 96.7%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$35,189,899 Vol.
$35,189,899 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
97%
25+ bps increase
2%
No change 96.7%
25+ bps increase 1.9%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$35,189,899 Vol.
$35,189,899 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$11,927,039 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$7,458,774 Vol.
1%
No change
$7,130,558 Vol.
97%
25+ bps increase
$8,673,998 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 96.8% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target amid steady February 2026 CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor markets, with weekly jobless claims at a low 210,000 and unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, prioritizing data-dependent caution despite oil price surges from geopolitical tensions. Realistic challenges include upside surprises in the March CPI release on April 10 or April nonfarm payrolls, which could elevate hike odds currently at 1.8%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$35,189,899End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 96.8% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target amid steady February 2026 CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor markets, with weekly jobless claims at a low 210,000 and unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, prioritizing data-dependent caution despite oil price surges from geopolitical tensions. Realistic challenges include upside surprises in the March CPI release on April 10 or April nonfarm payrolls, which could elevate hike odds currently at 1.8%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$35,189,899End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a dominant 96.8% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the 3.50%-3.75% target amid steady February 2026 CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor markets, with weekly jobless claims at a low 210,000 and unemployment projected at 4.4% for year-end. The updated dot plot signals just one 25 basis point cut later in 2026, prioritizing data-dependent caution despite oil price surges from geopolitical tensions. Realistic challenges include upside surprises in the March CPI release on April 10 or April nonfarm payrolls, which could elevate hike odds currently at 1.8%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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