Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 95.9% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2025 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that tempers expectations for further monetary easing after December's 25 basis point cut to the 4.25%-4.50% fed funds range. Recent nonfarm payrolls surpassing forecasts by 100,000 jobs and November CPI inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year—above the Fed's 2% target—have solidified consensus for a policy pause, aligning with the FOMC's dot plot signaling just two cuts in 2025, likely starting in March. This positioning draws strength from the wisdom of crowds, with real capital backing trader sentiment amid sticky services inflation and robust consumer spending. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp labor market downturn or sub-2.5% CPI readings in upcoming January and February releases, potentially prompting an earlier 25 basis point cut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed decision in April?
Fed decision in April?
No change 95.8%
25+ bps increase 2.7%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$32,278,337 Vol.
$32,278,337 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
96%
25+ bps increase
3%
No change 95.8%
25+ bps increase 2.7%
25 bps decrease 1.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$32,278,337 Vol.
$32,278,337 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$10,872,227 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$6,950,389 Vol.
1%
No change
$6,421,704 Vol.
96%
25+ bps increase
$8,034,088 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 95.9% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2025 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that tempers expectations for further monetary easing after December's 25 basis point cut to the 4.25%-4.50% fed funds range. Recent nonfarm payrolls surpassing forecasts by 100,000 jobs and November CPI inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year—above the Fed's 2% target—have solidified consensus for a policy pause, aligning with the FOMC's dot plot signaling just two cuts in 2025, likely starting in March. This positioning draws strength from the wisdom of crowds, with real capital backing trader sentiment amid sticky services inflation and robust consumer spending. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp labor market downturn or sub-2.5% CPI readings in upcoming January and February releases, potentially prompting an earlier 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$32,278,337End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 95.9% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2025 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that tempers expectations for further monetary easing after December's 25 basis point cut to the 4.25%-4.50% fed funds range. Recent nonfarm payrolls surpassing forecasts by 100,000 jobs and November CPI inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year—above the Fed's 2% target—have solidified consensus for a policy pause, aligning with the FOMC's dot plot signaling just two cuts in 2025, likely starting in March. This positioning draws strength from the wisdom of crowds, with real capital backing trader sentiment amid sticky services inflation and robust consumer spending. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp labor market downturn or sub-2.5% CPI readings in upcoming January and February releases, potentially prompting an earlier 25 basis point cut.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$32,278,337End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 95.9% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the April 29-30, 2025 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that tempers expectations for further monetary easing after December's 25 basis point cut to the 4.25%-4.50% fed funds range. Recent nonfarm payrolls surpassing forecasts by 100,000 jobs and November CPI inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year—above the Fed's 2% target—have solidified consensus for a policy pause, aligning with the FOMC's dot plot signaling just two cuts in 2025, likely starting in March. This positioning draws strength from the wisdom of crowds, with real capital backing trader sentiment amid sticky services inflation and robust consumer spending. Scenarios challenging this include a sharp labor market downturn or sub-2.5% CPI readings in upcoming January and February releases, potentially prompting an earlier 25 basis point cut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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