Polymarket traders price Elon Musk's net worth at March 31 in a tight 640-670 billion range, with 650-660b leading at 29.5% implied probability and 640-650b close behind at 20.5%, reflecting Tesla share price volatility amid softening China EV demand and delayed robotaxi event to October 2025. Tesla's market cap, underpinning ~20% of Musk's wealth via his ~411 million shares and options, has stabilized post-election surge but faces headwinds from Q4 delivery growth slowing to 1.79 million annually. SpaceX's stable $350 billion valuation from December tender bolsters ~$147 billion stake, complemented by xAI's $50 billion funding round adding ~$27 billion. Consensus hinges on Tesla's January 29 earnings for autonomy progress and margin recovery signals, with key thresholds at $450/share potentially tipping toward higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated650-660b 31%
640-650b 21%
660-670b 14%
<640b 12%
$408,728 Vol.
$408,728 Vol.
<640b
12%
640-650b
21%
650-660b
31%
660-670b
14%
670-680b
8%
680-690b
5%
690-700b
1%
700-710b
1%
710b+
11%
650-660b 31%
640-650b 21%
660-670b 14%
<640b 12%
$408,728 Vol.
$408,728 Vol.
<640b
12%
640-650b
21%
650-660b
31%
660-670b
14%
670-680b
8%
680-690b
5%
690-700b
1%
700-710b
1%
710b+
11%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price Elon Musk's net worth at March 31 in a tight 640-670 billion range, with 650-660b leading at 29.5% implied probability and 640-650b close behind at 20.5%, reflecting Tesla share price volatility amid softening China EV demand and delayed robotaxi event to October 2025. Tesla's market cap, underpinning ~20% of Musk's wealth via his ~411 million shares and options, has stabilized post-election surge but faces headwinds from Q4 delivery growth slowing to 1.79 million annually. SpaceX's stable $350 billion valuation from December tender bolsters ~$147 billion stake, complemented by xAI's $50 billion funding round adding ~$27 billion. Consensus hinges on Tesla's January 29 earnings for autonomy progress and margin recovery signals, with key thresholds at $450/share potentially tipping toward higher bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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