Market icon
Politics·Canada

Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner

Market icon
Politics·Canada

Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner

Avi Lewis 100.0%

Tanille Johnson <1%

Heather McPherson <1%

Bianca Mugyenyi <1%

Polymarket

$133,324 Vol.

Avi Lewis 100.0%

Tanille Johnson <1%

Heather McPherson <1%

Bianca Mugyenyi <1%

Polymarket

$133,324 Vol.

Tanille Johnson

$25,718 Vol.

No

Heather McPherson

$34,630 Vol.

No

Bianca Mugyenyi

$11,024 Vol.

No

Rob Ashton

$17,120 Vol.

No

Avi Lewis

$35,204 Vol.

Yes

Tony McQuail

$9,629 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026. The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used. If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Avi Lewis clinched a commanding first-ballot victory in the New Democratic Party's 2026 leadership election at the Winnipeg convention today, March 29, securing nearly 40,000 votes from delegates and members who voted March 9-28, far outpacing rivals Tanille Johnson, Heather McPherson, Bianca Mugyenyi, Rob Ashton, and Tony McQuail. This followed Jagmeet Singh's resignation after the NDP's sharp decline to 7 seats in the prior federal election, with Lewis dominating via superior fundraising and broad party support. Traders reflect 100% implied probability on Lewis as the new federal NDP leader, awaiting formal certification; only an unprecedented recount or procedural challenge could shift the outcome.

Avi Lewis clinched a commanding first-ballot victory in the New Democratic Party's 2026 leadership election at the Winnipeg convention today, March 29, securing nearly 40,000 votes from delegates and members who voted March 9-28, far outpacing rivals Tanille Johnson, Heather McPherson, Bianca Mugyenyi, Rob Ashton, and Tony McQuail. This followed Jagmeet Singh's resignation after the NDP's sharp decline to 7 seats in the prior federal election, with Lewis dominating via superior fundraising and broad party support. Traders reflect 100% implied probability on Lewis as the new federal NDP leader, awaiting formal certification; only an unprecedented recount or procedural challenge could shift the outcome.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026. The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used. If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Avi Lewis clinched a commanding first-ballot victory in the New Democratic Party's 2026 leadership election at the Winnipeg convention today, March 29, securing nearly 40,000 votes from delegates and members who voted March 9-28, far outpacing rivals Tanille Johnson, Heather McPherson, Bianca Mugyenyi, Rob Ashton, and Tony McQuail. This followed Jagmeet Singh's resignation after the NDP's sharp decline to 7 seats in the prior federal election, with Lewis dominating via superior fundraising and broad party support. Traders reflect 100% implied probability on Lewis as the new federal NDP leader, awaiting formal certification; only an unprecedented recount or procedural challenge could shift the outcome.

Avi Lewis clinched a commanding first-ballot victory in the New Democratic Party's 2026 leadership election at the Winnipeg convention today, March 29, securing nearly 40,000 votes from delegates and members who voted March 9-28, far outpacing rivals Tanille Johnson, Heather McPherson, Bianca Mugyenyi, Rob Ashton, and Tony McQuail. This followed Jagmeet Singh's resignation after the NDP's sharp decline to 7 seats in the prior federal election, with Lewis dominating via superior fundraising and broad party support. Traders reflect 100% implied probability on Lewis as the new federal NDP leader, awaiting formal certification; only an unprecedented recount or procedural challenge could shift the outcome.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Avi Lewis" at 100%, followed by "Tanille Johnson" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner" has generated $133.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner" is "Avi Lewis" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tanille Johnson" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Canada New Democratic Party Leadership Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.