Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the MPC's April 30 meeting, reflecting the Bank's cautious stance amid persistent 3.0% CPI inflation through February 2026—unchanged from January—and upward risks from Middle East energy shocks projected to push inflation to 3.5% in Q3. Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks, warning markets are "ahead of themselves" in pricing hikes, have reinforced this positioning, emphasizing a precautionary rise would need careful weighing against growth and jobs risks. A modest 9.6% odds on an increase capture residual inflation concerns, while cuts at 0.4% combined appear off the table given sticky services inflation and core measures edging higher; watch March CPI on April 22 for potential shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBank of England decision in April?
Bank of England decision in April?
No change 89%
Increase 9.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$286,375 Vol.
$286,375 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
89%
Increase
10%
No change 89%
Increase 9.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$286,375 Vol.
$286,375 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
89%
Increase
10%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 5:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's April 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 89.5% implied probability to no change in the Bank Rate at the MPC's April 30 meeting, reflecting the Bank's cautious stance amid persistent 3.0% CPI inflation through February 2026—unchanged from January—and upward risks from Middle East energy shocks projected to push inflation to 3.5% in Q3. Governor Bailey's April 1 remarks, warning markets are "ahead of themselves" in pricing hikes, have reinforced this positioning, emphasizing a precautionary rise would need careful weighing against growth and jobs risks. A modest 9.6% odds on an increase capture residual inflation concerns, while cuts at 0.4% combined appear off the table given sticky services inflation and core measures edging higher; watch March CPI on April 22 for potential shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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