Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change outcome at 97.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada's April 29 policy rate decision, anchored by the March 18 hold at 2.25% amid February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—and unemployment ticking up to 6.7%. This positioning reflects Governing Council deliberations emphasizing judgment amid a cooling domestic economy, softening labor market, and global trade uncertainties like US tariffs, with core inflation measures stabilizing without signaling urgent easing or hikes. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or accelerating job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut, though traders see limited upside risks given the overnight rate's neutral stance relative to neutral estimates around 2.25–2.50%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBank of Canada decision in April?
Bank of Canada decision in April?
No change 97.2%
Increase 2.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$80,014 Vol.
$80,014 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
97%
Increase
3%
No change 97.2%
Increase 2.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$80,014 Vol.
$80,014 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$20,838 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$25,095 Vol.
<1%
No change
$23,322 Vol.
97%
Increase
$10,764 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change outcome at 97.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada's April 29 policy rate decision, anchored by the March 18 hold at 2.25% amid February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—and unemployment ticking up to 6.7%. This positioning reflects Governing Council deliberations emphasizing judgment amid a cooling domestic economy, softening labor market, and global trade uncertainties like US tariffs, with core inflation measures stabilizing without signaling urgent easing or hikes. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or accelerating job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut, though traders see limited upside risks given the overnight rate's neutral stance relative to neutral estimates around 2.25–2.50%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volume
$80,014End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change outcome at 97.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada's April 29 policy rate decision, anchored by the March 18 hold at 2.25% amid February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—and unemployment ticking up to 6.7%. This positioning reflects Governing Council deliberations emphasizing judgment amid a cooling domestic economy, softening labor market, and global trade uncertainties like US tariffs, with core inflation measures stabilizing without signaling urgent easing or hikes. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or accelerating job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut, though traders see limited upside risks given the overnight rate's neutral stance relative to neutral estimates around 2.25–2.50%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$80,014End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a no-change outcome at 97.5% implied probability for the Bank of Canada's April 29 policy rate decision, anchored by the March 18 hold at 2.25% amid February CPI inflation easing to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—and unemployment ticking up to 6.7%. This positioning reflects Governing Council deliberations emphasizing judgment amid a cooling domestic economy, softening labor market, and global trade uncertainties like US tariffs, with core inflation measures stabilizing without signaling urgent easing or hikes. Realistic challenges include weaker-than-expected March CPI (due mid-April) or accelerating job losses prompting a 25 basis point cut, though traders see limited upside risks given the overnight rate's neutral stance relative to neutral estimates around 2.25–2.50%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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