$3,443,461 Vol.
Jan 12, 2026
January 3
$260,471 Vol.
No
January 4
$345,751 Vol.
No
January 5
$319,880 Vol.
No
January 6
$216,811 Vol.
No
January 7
$548,383 Vol.
No
January 8
$109,461 Vol.
No
January 9
$1,194,068 Vol.
No
January 10
$113,829 Vol.
No
January 11
$115,744 Vol.
No
January 12
$219,062 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil between market creation and Jan 3, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil between market creation and Jan 3, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Created At: Jan 3, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
Volume
$3,443,461End Date
Jan 12, 2026Created At
Jan 3, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$3,443,461 Vol.
January 3
$260,471 Vol.
No
January 4
$345,751 Vol.
No
January 5
$319,880 Vol.
No
January 6
$216,811 Vol.
No
January 7
$548,383 Vol.
No
January 8
$109,461 Vol.
No
January 9
$1,194,068 Vol.
No
January 10
$113,829 Vol.
No
January 11
$115,744 Vol.
No
January 12
$219,062 Vol.
No
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