Name: #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?
Start: 2026-01-09T17:51:52.38877Z
End: 2026-01-16T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

ChatGPT

Grok

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money

CapCut: Photo & Video Editor

Google Gemini

Google

Threads

Whatnot: Shop, Sell, Connect

#2 Free App

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

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#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of the AirTag 2 launches at $29.99 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the AirTag 2 as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail pricing in the United States on the first official day of its release.

If the price differs between configurations, this market will resolve according to the lower price of the version that includes the full standard AirTag 2 model with no additional features, accessories, or services.

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

If the AirTag 2 is not released by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Apple Store (online or retail pricing), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release?

This market will resolve according to the number 1 artist on the Billboard 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart.

If Billboard does not publish a 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Billboard Year-End 2026 Top Artists Chart, once it becomes available.

Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026.

If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. 

Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of albums that are ranked number 1 on any official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026.

Each specific album may only count once, regardless of the number times it reaches the number 1 spot. Different editions of the same album will be considered to be different specific albums if they contain different tracklists.

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

All officially published Billboard 200 Albums charts will be treated as final. Revisions made after the release of a Billboard 200 album chart will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart, published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/ and through other official Billboard channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting on albums that reached number 1 on the Billboard 200 within this market's timeframe may also be used.

Will between 22 and 24 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on February 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765).  The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on February 1, 2026. If no data for February 1 is released by February 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/6)


Will the median home value in the US be greater than $418,000 by February 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Apple release a MacBook with cellular connectivity by June 30?

The Pricempire Counter-Strike 2 Market Cap is intended to measure the value of all items available for sale in the Counter-Strike 2 economy across various Counter-Strike 2 marketplaces. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily datapoint of the cumulative Market Cap graph for Counter-Strike 2 skins and other items, as tracked by the market database Pricempire (https://app.pricempire.com/), reaches or surpasses $6 billion for any day between market issuance and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A day’s datapoint will be considered finalized once the following day’s final number displayed in the graph for the respective date at 00:00 has been released.

If the $6 billion threshold is reached or exceeded by any finalized daily Pricempire Counter-Strike 2 market cap, this market will immediately resolve to “Yes”.

Statements by Pricempire that the Counter-Strike Market Cap data is inaccurate for any qualifying point, or downward revisions of an initially qualifying point, will not be sufficient to disqualify a finalized daily Market Cap figure from resolving this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the “CS2 Marketcap” figure and graph available at https://app.pricempire.com/. 

If this resolution source becomes unavailable at resolution time, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “No”.

CS2 market cap reaches 6 billion again by January 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the fighter that is ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If, for any reason, there is no fighter ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at this market’s check-time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Will Islam Makhachev be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

Google Gemini
$20,211 Vol.
47%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
$5,526 Vol.
23%

Threads
$6,622 Vol.
5%

ChatGPT
$15,452 Vol.
2%

Grok
$3,150 Vol.
1%

Google
$2,928 Vol.
<1%

Whatnot: Shop, Sell, Connect
$2,278 Vol.
<1%

CapCut: Photo & Video Editor
$1,939 Vol.
<1%

Market Context

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

Rules

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

Market Context

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

About

Related

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

Google Gemini$20,211 Vol.47%buy Yes53¢buy No59¢

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money$5,526 Vol.23%buy Yes27.3¢buy No80.4¢

Threads$6,622 Vol.5%buy Yes7.0¢buy No96.9¢

ChatGPT$15,452 Vol.2%buy Yes2.5¢buy No98.3¢

Grok$3,150 Vol.1%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.3¢

Google$2,928 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.9¢

Whatnot: Shop, Sell, Connect$2,278 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.4¢buy No99.8¢

CapCut: Photo & Video Editor$1,939 Vol.<1%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.8¢

Market Context

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

Rules

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

Market Context

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16?

About

Related

Google Gemini
$20,211 Vol.
47%

Freecash - Get Paid Real Money
$5,526 Vol.
23%

Threads
$6,622 Vol.
5%

ChatGPT
$15,452 Vol.
2%

Grok
$3,150 Vol.
1%

Google
$2,928 Vol.
<1%

Whatnot: Shop, Sell, Connect
$2,278 Vol.
<1%

CapCut: Photo & Video Editor
$1,939 Vol.
<1%