Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.7% reflecting insurmountable constitutional, legal, and geopolitical barriers to Venezuela achieving U.S. statehood, despite dramatic shifts including U.S. military strikes on Caracas in early January 2026 that ousted Nicolás Maduro, his seizure with wife Cilia Flores, and subsequent reestablishment of diplomatic ties with interim authorities under Delcy Rodríguez in March. President Trump's March 17 quip suggesting statehood—tied to Venezuela's World Baseball Classic semifinal win—was widely viewed as jest amid strained bilateral relations focused on stability, economic reforms, and resource access rather than annexation. Article IV of the U.S. Constitution requires congressional approval for new states from existing territory, with no petition, referendum, or legislative momentum; international sovereignty norms preclude absorption without collapse into U.S. protectorate status, an improbable scenario absent total governmental vacuum or broad Venezuelan consent.