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Política·Irán

¿Cuál será el objetivo de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán para el 31 de marzo?

Market icon
Política·Irán

¿Cuál será el objetivo de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán para el 31 de marzo?

$358,835 Vol.

Polymarket

$358,835 Vol.

Polymarket

Instalación nuclear de Fordow

$96,991 Vol.

10%

Instalación nuclear de Isfahán

$95,542 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility, in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Tensions between Israel, the U.S., and Iran have escalated amid the ongoing Gaza conflict and attacks by Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, but no direct U.S. or Israeli strikes inside Iran occurred by the March 31 deadline. Key recent drivers include Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, killing senior IRGC officers—a response to prior proxy actions—and the IAEA's March 4 censure of Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites, with enrichment levels nearing 84% purity. U.S. officials publicly urged restraint to avert wider war, while diplomatic efforts like Vienna nuclear talks stalled. Traders weigh low escalation risks against potential retaliation signals, with resolution tied to verified military actions on Iranian soil.

Tensions between Israel, the U.S., and Iran have escalated amid the ongoing Gaza conflict and attacks by Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, but no direct U.S. or Israeli strikes inside Iran occurred by the March 31 deadline. Key recent drivers include Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, killing senior IRGC officers—a response to prior proxy actions—and the IAEA's March 4 censure of Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites, with enrichment levels nearing 84% purity. U.S. officials publicly urged restraint to avert wider war, while diplomatic efforts like Vienna nuclear talks stalled. Traders weigh low escalation risks against potential retaliation signals, with resolution tied to verified military actions on Iranian soil.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against an Iranian oil or gas facility, inclusive of all Iranian oil rigs, or refineries, or other oil/gas infrastructure located on Iranian soil or within Iranian maritime territory, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli or US missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. or Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against the Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility, in Iran between the time of market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count toward the resolution of this market. U.S. or Israeli air, missile, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their target will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Tensions between Israel, the U.S., and Iran have escalated amid the ongoing Gaza conflict and attacks by Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, but no direct U.S. or Israeli strikes inside Iran occurred by the March 31 deadline. Key recent drivers include Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, killing senior IRGC officers—a response to prior proxy actions—and the IAEA's March 4 censure of Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites, with enrichment levels nearing 84% purity. U.S. officials publicly urged restraint to avert wider war, while diplomatic efforts like Vienna nuclear talks stalled. Traders weigh low escalation risks against potential retaliation signals, with resolution tied to verified military actions on Iranian soil.

Tensions between Israel, the U.S., and Iran have escalated amid the ongoing Gaza conflict and attacks by Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, but no direct U.S. or Israeli strikes inside Iran occurred by the March 31 deadline. Key recent drivers include Israel's April 1 airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, killing senior IRGC officers—a response to prior proxy actions—and the IAEA's March 4 censure of Iran for failing to explain uranium traces at undeclared sites, with enrichment levels nearing 84% purity. U.S. officials publicly urged restraint to avert wider war, while diplomatic efforts like Vienna nuclear talks stalled. Traders weigh low escalation risks against potential retaliation signals, with resolution tied to verified military actions on Iranian soil.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuál será el objetivo de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Nuclear" con 100%, seguido de "Petróleo/Gas" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuál será el objetivo de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" ha generado $358.8K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuál será el objetivo de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán para el 31 de marzo?", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuál será el objetivo de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" es "Nuclear" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Petróleo/Gas" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuál será el objetivo de Estados Unidos e Israel en Irán para el 31 de marzo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.