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Elecciones·Trump

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12

Market icon
Elecciones·Trump

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12

Micah Lasher 41%

Alex Bores 31%

Jack Schlossberg 16%

George Conway 3.8%

Polymarket

$87,179 Vol.

Micah Lasher 41%

Alex Bores 31%

Jack Schlossberg 16%

George Conway 3.8%

Polymarket

$87,179 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$4,454 Vol.

37%

Alex Bores

$2,750 Vol.

31%

Jack Schlossberg

$4,947 Vol.

16%

George Conway

$1,409 Vol.

4%

Erik Bottcher

$1,690 Vol.

8%

Liz Krueger

$20,446 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$1,636 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 Vol.

1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$1,239 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,349 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,755 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,216 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,626 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 25, trader consensus favors Micah Lasher at 36.5% implied probability, just ahead of Alex Bores at 30.5%, reflecting a tight race driven by recent Emerson polling showing Lasher at 20%, Bores at 15%, and 27% undecided voters amid ongoing early voting. Lasher's edge stems from superior fundraising—over $2 million raised—and endorsements from EMILY's List, former Rep. Nita Lowey, and Reps. Tom Suozzi and Kathy Manning, appealing to establishment donors in the Upper East and West Sides. Bores gains from progressive grassroots support and backing by Rep. Dan Goldman and ex-Gov. David Paterson, while Jack Schlossberg's 16% reflects Kennedy name recognition despite limited experience critiques in recent debates. Final endorsements or turnout among undecideds could tip the balance before polls close.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$87,179
Fecha de finalización
Jun 23, 2026
Mercado abierto
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 25, trader consensus favors Micah Lasher at 36.5% implied probability, just ahead of Alex Bores at 30.5%, reflecting a tight race driven by recent Emerson polling showing Lasher at 20%, Bores at 15%, and 27% undecided voters amid ongoing early voting. Lasher's edge stems from superior fundraising—over $2 million raised—and endorsements from EMILY's List, former Rep. Nita Lowey, and Reps. Tom Suozzi and Kathy Manning, appealing to establishment donors in the Upper East and West Sides. Bores gains from progressive grassroots support and backing by Rep. Dan Goldman and ex-Gov. David Paterson, while Jack Schlossberg's 16% reflects Kennedy name recognition despite limited experience critiques in recent debates. Final endorsements or turnout among undecideds could tip the balance before polls close.

In New York's 12th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 25, trader consensus favors Micah Lasher at 36.5% implied probability, just ahead of Alex Bores at 30.5%, reflecting a tight race driven by recent Emerson polling showing Lasher at 20%, Bores at 15%, and 27% undecided voters amid ongoing early voting. Lasher's edge stems from superior fundraising—over $2 million raised—and endorsements from EMILY's List, former Rep. Nita Lowey, and Reps. Tom Suozzi and Kathy Manning, appealing to establishment donors in the Upper East and West Sides. Bores gains from progressive grassroots support and backing by Rep. Dan Goldman and ex-Gov. David Paterson, while Jack Schlossberg's 16% reflects Kennedy name recognition despite limited experience critiques in recent debates. Final endorsements or turnout among undecideds could tip the balance before polls close.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 19 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Micah Lasher" con 37%, seguido de "Alex Bores" con 31%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 37¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" ha generado $87.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 21, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12", explora los 19 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" es "Micah Lasher" con 37%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Alex Bores" con 31%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-12" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.