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Elecciones·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04

Market icon
Elecciones·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 5.7%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Laura Gillen 74%

Nicholas Sciretta 14%

Taylor Darling 5.7%

Gian Jones <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Laura Gillen

$2,844 Vol.

74%

Nicholas Sciretta

$0 Vol.

18%

Taylor Darling

$0 Vol.

6%

Gian Jones

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.8 million raised—and name recognition from flipping NY-04 in 2024's general election position her as trader consensus favorite at 74% implied probability for the June 23 Democratic primary. Former Assemblymember Taylor Darling's mid-February challenge, centered on Gillen's January vote for a DHS funding package including ICE provisions, has drawn progressive criticism but holds her at 5.7%, tempered by Darling's own 2024 state Senate primary loss. Challenger Nicholas Sciretta garners 17.5% amid sparse endorsements and grassroots buzz, while Gian Jones trails at 0.7% with minimal resources. Absent polls, State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement as of March 25 underscores key party dynamics in this closed primary.

Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.8 million raised—and name recognition from flipping NY-04 in 2024's general election position her as trader consensus favorite at 74% implied probability for the June 23 Democratic primary. Former Assemblymember Taylor Darling's mid-February challenge, centered on Gillen's January vote for a DHS funding package including ICE provisions, has drawn progressive criticism but holds her at 5.7%, tempered by Darling's own 2024 state Senate primary loss. Challenger Nicholas Sciretta garners 17.5% amid sparse endorsements and grassroots buzz, while Gian Jones trails at 0.7% with minimal resources. Absent polls, State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement as of March 25 underscores key party dynamics in this closed primary.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.8 million raised—and name recognition from flipping NY-04 in 2024's general election position her as trader consensus favorite at 74% implied probability for the June 23 Democratic primary. Former Assemblymember Taylor Darling's mid-February challenge, centered on Gillen's January vote for a DHS funding package including ICE provisions, has drawn progressive criticism but holds her at 5.7%, tempered by Darling's own 2024 state Senate primary loss. Challenger Nicholas Sciretta garners 17.5% amid sparse endorsements and grassroots buzz, while Gian Jones trails at 0.7% with minimal resources. Absent polls, State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement as of March 25 underscores key party dynamics in this closed primary.

Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's commanding fundraising lead—over $2.8 million raised—and name recognition from flipping NY-04 in 2024's general election position her as trader consensus favorite at 74% implied probability for the June 23 Democratic primary. Former Assemblymember Taylor Darling's mid-February challenge, centered on Gillen's January vote for a DHS funding package including ICE provisions, has drawn progressive criticism but holds her at 5.7%, tempered by Darling's own 2024 state Senate primary loss. Challenger Nicholas Sciretta garners 17.5% amid sparse endorsements and grassroots buzz, while Gian Jones trails at 0.7% with minimal resources. Absent polls, State Sen. Siela Bynoe's pending endorsement as of March 25 underscores key party dynamics in this closed primary.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Laura Gillen" con 74%, seguido de "Nicholas Sciretta" con 18%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 74¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 74% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Dec 1, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" es "Laura Gillen" con 74%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 74% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Nicholas Sciretta" con 18%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias demócratas de NY-04" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.