Trader consensus favors United Russia at 69% implied probability for the largest net seat gain from its 2021 total of 324 in the upcoming State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, driven by incumbency advantages, wartime mobilization, and new single-member districts in annexed territories boosting its baseline amid a mixed proportional list and first-past-the-post system. New People trails at 22.7%, reflecting recent FOM and VCIOM polls (March 19–22) showing the party at 5–13% support—up from negligible levels—positioning it for outsized growth from 13 seats as managed opposition in competitive regions. United Russia's General Council meeting on March 23 acknowledged challenges in 30 regions, targeting 55% list vote and 195/225 single-member wins, while polls indicate UR leads at 29–55% but with potential erosion amid economic pressures. LDPR and KPRF linger low at 5.8% and 1.3% due to stagnant 7–13% polling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Qué partido ganará más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?
¿Qué partido ganará más escaños en las elecciones parlamentarias rusas?
Rusia Unida (ER) 69%
Nuevas Personas (NL) 22.7%
Partido Liberal Democrático de Rusia (LDPR) 5.8%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,399,649 Vol.
$4,399,649 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Rusia Unida (ER)
69%
Nuevas Personas (NL)
23%
Partido Liberal Democrático de Rusia (LDPR)
6%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF)
1%
Rusia Justa – Por la Verdad (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Plataforma Cívica (GP)
<1%
Rusia Unida (ER) 69%
Nuevas Personas (NL) 22.7%
Partido Liberal Democrático de Rusia (LDPR) 5.8%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,399,649 Vol.
$4,399,649 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Rusia Unida (ER)
$1,220,882 Vol.
69%
Nuevas Personas (NL)
$277,037 Vol.
23%
Partido Liberal Democrático de Rusia (LDPR)
$2,034,374 Vol.
6%
Partido Comunista de la Federación Rusa (KPRF)
$254,843 Vol.
1%
Rusia Justa – Por la Verdad (SRZP)
$226,921 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$196,164 Vol.
<1%
Plataforma Cívica (GP)
$189,619 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia at 69% implied probability for the largest net seat gain from its 2021 total of 324 in the upcoming State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, driven by incumbency advantages, wartime mobilization, and new single-member districts in annexed territories boosting its baseline amid a mixed proportional list and first-past-the-post system. New People trails at 22.7%, reflecting recent FOM and VCIOM polls (March 19–22) showing the party at 5–13% support—up from negligible levels—positioning it for outsized growth from 13 seats as managed opposition in competitive regions. United Russia's General Council meeting on March 23 acknowledged challenges in 30 regions, targeting 55% list vote and 195/225 single-member wins, while polls indicate UR leads at 29–55% but with potential erosion amid economic pressures. LDPR and KPRF linger low at 5.8% and 1.3% due to stagnant 7–13% polling.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Mercado abierto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volumen
$4,399,649Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia at 69% implied probability for the largest net seat gain from its 2021 total of 324 in the upcoming State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, driven by incumbency advantages, wartime mobilization, and new single-member districts in annexed territories boosting its baseline amid a mixed proportional list and first-past-the-post system. New People trails at 22.7%, reflecting recent FOM and VCIOM polls (March 19–22) showing the party at 5–13% support—up from negligible levels—positioning it for outsized growth from 13 seats as managed opposition in competitive regions. United Russia's General Council meeting on March 23 acknowledged challenges in 30 regions, targeting 55% list vote and 195/225 single-member wins, while polls indicate UR leads at 29–55% but with potential erosion amid economic pressures. LDPR and KPRF linger low at 5.8% and 1.3% due to stagnant 7–13% polling.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volumen
$4,399,649Fecha de finalización
Sep 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors United Russia at 69% implied probability for the largest net seat gain from its 2021 total of 324 in the upcoming State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, driven by incumbency advantages, wartime mobilization, and new single-member districts in annexed territories boosting its baseline amid a mixed proportional list and first-past-the-post system. New People trails at 22.7%, reflecting recent FOM and VCIOM polls (March 19–22) showing the party at 5–13% support—up from negligible levels—positioning it for outsized growth from 13 seats as managed opposition in competitive regions. United Russia's General Council meeting on March 23 acknowledged challenges in 30 regions, targeting 55% list vote and 195/225 single-member wins, while polls indicate UR leads at 29–55% but with potential erosion amid economic pressures. LDPR and KPRF linger low at 5.8% and 1.3% due to stagnant 7–13% polling.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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