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Elecciones·Elecciones Mundiales

Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028

Market icon
Elecciones·Elecciones Mundiales

Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$473,702,602 Vol.

JD Vance 18.1%

Gavin Newsom 17.1%

Marco Rubio 10.4%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$473,702,602 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,218,036 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,767,666 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,346,264 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,433,021 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,023,692 Vol.

3%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Kamala Harris

$6,540,202 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,391,806 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,319,314 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,495,157 Vol.

2%

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Título del grupo: Andy Beshear

$15,069,941 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,442,822 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,869,470 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,535,534 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,650,684 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,774,949 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,043,862 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,151,400 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,722,016 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,318,003 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,403,791 Vol.

1%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Elon Musk

$22,019,078 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,610,599 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,423,190 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,073,985 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,687,538 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,342,964 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,483,318 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,822,353 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,231,126 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,183,064 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,352,481 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,018,835 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,101,437 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,005,192 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,175,276 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$42,680,301 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10%, reflecting an open field amid President Trump's two-term limit and anticipation of 2026 midterms. Vance's lead as heir apparent has narrowed recently due to dipping GOP favorability following the Iran operation, while Newsom's vocal warnings on national stakes and family deliberations boost his Democratic frontrunner status. Rubio's surge stems from high-profile diplomatic successes, including Venezuela developments and Munich positioning, plus reports of Trump donor preferences favoring him over Vance. With probabilities under 20%, traders price in uncertainty from midterm outcomes, potential endorsements, and party fatigue after eight Republican years, keeping the race tightly contested.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10%, reflecting an open field amid President Trump's two-term limit and anticipation of 2026 midterms. Vance's lead as heir apparent has narrowed recently due to dipping GOP favorability following the Iran operation, while Newsom's vocal warnings on national stakes and family deliberations boost his Democratic frontrunner status. Rubio's surge stems from high-profile diplomatic successes, including Venezuela developments and Munich positioning, plus reports of Trump donor preferences favoring him over Vance. With probabilities under 20%, traders price in uncertainty from midterm outcomes, potential endorsements, and party fatigue after eight Republican years, keeping the race tightly contested.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10%, reflecting an open field amid President Trump's two-term limit and anticipation of 2026 midterms. Vance's lead as heir apparent has narrowed recently due to dipping GOP favorability following the Iran operation, while Newsom's vocal warnings on national stakes and family deliberations boost his Democratic frontrunner status. Rubio's surge stems from high-profile diplomatic successes, including Venezuela developments and Munich positioning, plus reports of Trump donor preferences favoring him over Vance. With probabilities under 20%, traders price in uncertainty from midterm outcomes, potential endorsements, and party fatigue after eight Republican years, keeping the race tightly contested.

Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10%, reflecting an open field amid President Trump's two-term limit and anticipation of 2026 midterms. Vance's lead as heir apparent has narrowed recently due to dipping GOP favorability following the Iran operation, while Newsom's vocal warnings on national stakes and family deliberations boost his Democratic frontrunner status. Rubio's surge stems from high-profile diplomatic successes, including Venezuela developments and Munich positioning, plus reports of Trump donor preferences favoring him over Vance. With probabilities under 20%, traders price in uncertainty from midterm outcomes, potential endorsements, and party fatigue after eight Republican years, keeping the race tightly contested.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 36 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "JD Vance" con 18%, seguido de "Gavin Newsom" con 17%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 18¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" ha generado $473.7 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jul 11, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028", explora los 36 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" es "JD Vance" con 18%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 18% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Gavin Newsom" con 17%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.