Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10%, reflecting an open field amid President Trump's two-term limit and anticipation of 2026 midterms. Vance's lead as heir apparent has narrowed recently due to dipping GOP favorability following the Iran operation, while Newsom's vocal warnings on national stakes and family deliberations boost his Democratic frontrunner status. Rubio's surge stems from high-profile diplomatic successes, including Venezuela developments and Munich positioning, plus reports of Trump donor preferences favoring him over Vance. With probabilities under 20%, traders price in uncertainty from midterm outcomes, potential endorsements, and party fatigue after eight Republican years, keeping the race tightly contested.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028
Ganador de las elecciones presidenciales de 2028
JD Vance 18.1%
Gavin Newsom 17.1%
Marco Rubio 10.4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%
$473,702,602 Vol.
$473,702,602 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
10%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Título del grupo: Andy Beshear
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

JB Pritzker
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

James Talarico
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Título del ítem del grupo: Elon Musk
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
JD Vance 18.1%
Gavin Newsom 17.1%
Marco Rubio 10.4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%
$473,702,602 Vol.
$473,702,602 Vol.

JD Vance
18%

Gavin Newsom
17%

Marco Rubio
10%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
6%

Jon Ossoff
3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Kamala Harris
3%

Tucker Carlson
3%

Josh Shapiro
2%

Donald Trump
2%

Título del grupo: Andy Beshear
2%

Pete Buttigieg
2%

Ron DeSantis
2%

JB Pritzker
1%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson
1%

James Talarico
1%

Ivanka Trump
1%

Jamie Dimon
1%

Gretchen Whitmer
1%

Michelle Obama
1%

Greg Abbott
1%

Título del ítem del grupo: Elon Musk
1%

Wes Moore
1%

Donald Trump Jr.
1%

Nikki Haley
1%

Ro Khanna
1%

Thomas Massie
1%

Tim Walz
1%

Glenn Youngkin
1%

Stephen Smith
1%

Tulsi Gabbard
1%

Zohran Mamdani
1%

Vivek Ramaswamy
1%

Eric Trump
1%

Pete Hegseth
1%

Kim Kardashian
1%

LeBron James
<1%
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Mercado abierto: Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 18% implied probability for the 2028 presidential winner, closely trailed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10%, reflecting an open field amid President Trump's two-term limit and anticipation of 2026 midterms. Vance's lead as heir apparent has narrowed recently due to dipping GOP favorability following the Iran operation, while Newsom's vocal warnings on national stakes and family deliberations boost his Democratic frontrunner status. Rubio's surge stems from high-profile diplomatic successes, including Venezuela developments and Munich positioning, plus reports of Trump donor preferences favoring him over Vance. With probabilities under 20%, traders price in uncertainty from midterm outcomes, potential endorsements, and party fatigue after eight Republican years, keeping the race tightly contested.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes