Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión del Banco de Canadá en abril?
¿Decisión del Banco de Canadá en abril?
Sin cambios 97.3%
Aumento 1.8%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$80,363 Vol.
$80,363 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambios
97%
Aumento
2%
Sin cambios 97.3%
Aumento 1.8%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos <1%
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$80,363 Vol.
$80,363 Vol.
29 abr 2026
Reducción de más de 50 puntos básicos
$21,380 Vol.
<1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$25,139 Vol.
1%
Sin cambios
$23,490 Vol.
97%
Aumento
$10,854 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Volumen
$80,363Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$80,363Fecha de finalización
29 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.3% implied probability to the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate steady at 2.25% for the April 29 announcement, anchored by the central bank's March 18 decision to maintain rates amid balanced risks. February CPI cooled to 1.8% year-over-year—down from January's 2.3%—keeping inflation near the 2% target despite base effects and looming energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil volatility. A softening labor market, with unemployment at 6.7%, tempers cut expectations, while Governor Tiff Macklem emphasized judgment over data-dependence in uncertain times. This strong no-change positioning faces realistic challenges from hotter March CPI (due April 20) sparking hike bets or sharper economic weakness prompting a 25 basis points cut, though both trail at under 2%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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