US forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Operation Absolute Resolve, with no reported US casualties or sustained troop presence afterward, as confirmed by the Defense Department. In the past 30 days, relations have thawed significantly: diplomatic ties were reestablished March 5, sanctions were lifted from interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, and the US embassy resumed operations by late March, amid reports of US convoys and escorts in the capital signaling advisory influence. No new military entries have occurred, reflecting de-escalation focused on oil control and stability; watch for Maduro loyalist resistance, congressional war powers resolutions, or regional drug interdiction escalations that could prompt re-entry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,282,002 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
June 30
10%
$1,282,002 Vol.
June 30
$197,239 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Operation Absolute Resolve, with no reported US casualties or sustained troop presence afterward, as confirmed by the Defense Department. In the past 30 days, relations have thawed significantly: diplomatic ties were reestablished March 5, sanctions were lifted from interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, and the US embassy resumed operations by late March, amid reports of US convoys and escorts in the capital signaling advisory influence. No new military entries have occurred, reflecting de-escalation focused on oil control and stability; watch for Maduro loyalist resistance, congressional war powers resolutions, or regional drug interdiction escalations that could prompt re-entry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,282,002End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Operation Absolute Resolve, with no reported US casualties or sustained troop presence afterward, as confirmed by the Defense Department. In the past 30 days, relations have thawed significantly: diplomatic ties were reestablished March 5, sanctions were lifted from interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, and the US embassy resumed operations by late March, amid reports of US convoys and escorts in the capital signaling advisory influence. No new military entries have occurred, reflecting de-escalation focused on oil control and stability; watch for Maduro loyalist resistance, congressional war powers resolutions, or regional drug interdiction escalations that could prompt re-entry.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,282,002End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US forces conducted a precision raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Operation Absolute Resolve, with no reported US casualties or sustained troop presence afterward, as confirmed by the Defense Department. In the past 30 days, relations have thawed significantly: diplomatic ties were reestablished March 5, sanctions were lifted from interim President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1, and the US embassy resumed operations by late March, amid reports of US convoys and escorts in the capital signaling advisory influence. No new military entries have occurred, reflecting de-escalation focused on oil control and stability; watch for Maduro loyalist resistance, congressional war powers resolutions, or regional drug interdiction escalations that could prompt re-entry.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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