Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast pegs Tokyo's March 26 high near 13°C, anchoring trader consensus with 28% implied odds on that outcome amid closely matched 11-15°C probabilities. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from an approaching low-pressure system, which caps insolation and favors sub-14°C peaks, versus intermittent southerly winds enabling brief warm advection toward 15°C. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island amplification in central Tokyo, tilting sentiment against 16°C+ (14.5%) while historical late-March data—averaging 13.5°C maxima—supports the tight cluster over cooler anomalies below 11°C. Upcoming 12Z model runs could shift odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Tokyo on March 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on March 26?
13°C 28%
14°C 22%
15°C 19%
11°C 18%
6°C or below
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
16%
9°C
16%
10°C
16%
11°C
18%
12°C
18%
13°C
28%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C or higher
15%
13°C 28%
14°C 22%
15°C 19%
11°C 18%
6°C or below
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
16%
9°C
16%
10°C
16%
11°C
18%
12°C
18%
13°C
28%
14°C
22%
15°C
19%
16°C or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast pegs Tokyo's March 26 high near 13°C, anchoring trader consensus with 28% implied odds on that outcome amid closely matched 11-15°C probabilities. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from an approaching low-pressure system, which caps insolation and favors sub-14°C peaks, versus intermittent southerly winds enabling brief warm advection toward 15°C. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island amplification in central Tokyo, tilting sentiment against 16°C+ (14.5%) while historical late-March data—averaging 13.5°C maxima—supports the tight cluster over cooler anomalies below 11°C. Upcoming 12Z model runs could shift odds further.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen