Hong Kong Observatory's latest short-term forecast, indicating sunny periods and light winds under a high-pressure ridge, drives trader sentiment toward a cluster of mild-to-warm highs around 26-28°C, with 25% implied odds for 28°C or higher leading narrowly. This edges out cooler outcomes due to recent warm anomalies—yesterday's 25.8°C max—and seasonal March averages of 23-25°C being surpassed amid low humidity and strong solar insolation. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly on afternoon cloud cover, potentially capping peaks at 27°C (22.5% odds) versus 26°C (20%), while northeasterly breezes introduce downside risk toward 25°C (17.5%), explaining the tight race among top contenders.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 26. März?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 26. März?
25°C 32%
27°C 23%
21°C 22%
22°C 20%
18°C oder darunter
2%
19°C
8%
20°C
10%
21°C
12%
22°C
11%
23°C
16%
24°C
16%
25°C
18%
26°C
20%
27°C
23%
28°C oder höher
34%
25°C 32%
27°C 23%
21°C 22%
22°C 20%
18°C oder darunter
2%
19°C
8%
20°C
10%
21°C
12%
22°C
11%
23°C
16%
24°C
16%
25°C
18%
26°C
20%
27°C
23%
28°C oder höher
34%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Hong Kong Observatory's latest short-term forecast, indicating sunny periods and light winds under a high-pressure ridge, drives trader sentiment toward a cluster of mild-to-warm highs around 26-28°C, with 25% implied odds for 28°C or higher leading narrowly. This edges out cooler outcomes due to recent warm anomalies—yesterday's 25.8°C max—and seasonal March averages of 23-25°C being surpassed amid low humidity and strong solar insolation. Ensemble models from ECMWF and GFS diverge slightly on afternoon cloud cover, potentially capping peaks at 27°C (22.5% odds) versus 26°C (20%), while northeasterly breezes introduce downside risk toward 25°C (17.5%), explaining the tight race among top contenders.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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