Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Beijing high of 25°C (29%) or 24°C (18%), reflecting ensemble weather model outputs from ECMWF and GFS averaging 24-26°C for March 26, amid a mild spring warm-up driven by southerly winds and high-pressure ridging over eastern China. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show peak afternoon temperatures hinging on cloud cover and solar insolation, with urban heat island effects in Beijing potentially boosting readings by 1-2°C above rural stations. Lower outcomes (22-23°C at 17.5% each) gain traction if northerly cold advection strengthens, while extremes below 21°C (3%) or above 31°C (2.1%) remain unlikely per historical March norms of 12-18°C and current 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts. Model spread underscores high uncertainty ahead of final NWP runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
25°C 26%
24°C 18%
22°C 17%
23°C 17%
21°C or below
3%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
18%
25°C
26%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
2%
25°C 26%
24°C 18%
22°C 17%
23°C 17%
21°C or below
3%
22°C
17%
23°C
17%
24°C
18%
25°C
26%
26°C
17%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Beijing high of 25°C (29%) or 24°C (18%), reflecting ensemble weather model outputs from ECMWF and GFS averaging 24-26°C for March 26, amid a mild spring warm-up driven by southerly winds and high-pressure ridging over eastern China. Recent China Meteorological Administration updates show peak afternoon temperatures hinging on cloud cover and solar insolation, with urban heat island effects in Beijing potentially boosting readings by 1-2°C above rural stations. Lower outcomes (22-23°C at 17.5% each) gain traction if northerly cold advection strengthens, while extremes below 21°C (3%) or above 31°C (2.1%) remain unlikely per historical March norms of 12-18°C and current 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts. Model spread underscores high uncertainty ahead of final NWP runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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