Fed Decision in September?

Politics·Fomc

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

11%

25 bps increase

88%

50+ bps increase

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

JohnA

No matter the result, its an honor to gamble with you fellow degens

Secondary-Mosque

Just added more 😁😁

negoossppe

camel finance if you fucked this up its on you

Polken

wasup from camel crew

NotNiels

First Polymarket bet, Camels, UNITE! (entertainment purposes only)

25 bps increase 88%

No change 11%

50+ bps increase <1%

25 bps decrease <1%

$182M Vol

Monthly

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

5% chance

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

Reuters

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

The Washington Post

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

WSJ

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

Bloomberg.com

・

Trump Pushes Crypto Bill, Escalating Industry’s Fight With Banks

nytimes.com

・

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

Reuters

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

The Washington Post

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

WSJ

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

Bloomberg.com

・

Trump Pushes Crypto Bill, Escalating Industry’s Fight With Banks

nytimes.com

・

Senate Votes to Block Crypto Bill in Major Blow to the Industry

Reuters

・

US Senate fails to advance sweeping cryptocurrency bill in blow for industry

The Washington Post

・

Trump agrees to stricter ethics rules Democrats demanded in crypto bill

WSJ

・

Has the Bitcoin Rally Fizzled Out?

Bloomberg.com

・

Trump Pushes Crypto Bill, Escalating Industry’s Fight With Banks

$21M Vol

Ends Jan 1, 2027·

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Politics·Iran

September 21

September 30

October 31

December 31

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Signals Readiness to Escalate Fight in Face of Rising U.S. Pressure

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

AP News

・

Iran is forging a new ring of proxies to threaten US allies in the Gulf, officials say

WSJ

・

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Signals Readiness to Escalate Fight in Face of Rising U.S. Pressure

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

AP News

・

Iran is forging a new ring of proxies to threaten US allies in the Gulf, officials say

WSJ

・

Exclusive | Trump’s Top Advisers Confront Possibility That Iran War Lasts Through End of Term

Reuters

・

Houthi advance along Yemeni coast threatens Saudi oil exports

The New York Times

・

Iran Signals Readiness to Escalate Fight in Face of Rising U.S. Pressure

Bloomberg.com

・

Gulf States May Meet Iran Next Week to Discuss Future of Hormuz

AP News

・

Iran is forging a new ring of proxies to threaten US allies in the Gulf, officials say

December 31 62.5%

October 31 33%

September 30 14%

September 21 4.8%

$29M Vol

Ends Jan 1, 2027·

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

20% chance

Congress Has Proposed Many Bills for A.I. Regulation. Lawmakers Have Enacted Few.

Reuters

・

OpenAI pushes for mandatory national AI safety rules

AP News

・

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI industry needs to give safety measures time to catch up

BBC

・

Trump says Kennedy Center to close as court rules his name must stay off building

The Washington Post

・

A barrage of cases hitting the Supreme Court is stirring midterm confusion

nytimes.com

・

Congress Has Proposed Many Bills for A.I. Regulation. Lawmakers Have Enacted Few.

Reuters

・

OpenAI pushes for mandatory national AI safety rules

AP News

・

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI industry needs to give safety measures time to catch up

BBC

・

Trump says Kennedy Center to close as court rules his name must stay off building

The Washington Post

・

A barrage of cases hitting the Supreme Court is stirring midterm confusion

nytimes.com

・

Congress Has Proposed Many Bills for A.I. Regulation. Lawmakers Have Enacted Few.

Reuters

・

OpenAI pushes for mandatory national AI safety rules

AP News

・

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says AI industry needs to give safety measures time to catch up

BBC

・

Trump says Kennedy Center to close as court rules his name must stay off building

The Washington Post

・

A barrage of cases hitting the Supreme Court is stirring midterm confusion

$120K Vol

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↑ $110

↓ $100

↓ $95

↓ $90

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

WSJ

・

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

Bloomberg.com

・

Easing the Diesel Crunch Is Harder Than Keeping Planes in the Air

AP News

・

US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations

Reuters

・

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

WSJ

・

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

Bloomberg.com

・

Easing the Diesel Crunch Is Harder Than Keeping Planes in the Air

AP News

・

US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations

Reuters

・

Oil surges 6%, Brent and US crude both surpass $100 on more tanker attacks

WSJ

・

Tight Supply Worries Lift Oil As Middle East Conflict Heats Up

Bloomberg.com

・

Easing the Diesel Crunch Is Harder Than Keeping Planes in the Air

AP News

・

US stocks jump after oil prices ease and an inflation update comes in near expectations

↓ $100 75.9%

↓ $95 49%

↑ $110 48%

↓ $90 29.4%

$5M Vol

Monthly

All markets

Fed Decision in September?

25 bps increase

88%

Yes88%No13%

No change

11%

Yes11%No90%

25 bps increase

88%

Yes88%No13%

No change

11%

Yes11%No90%

$182M Vol.

BTC Up or Down 5m

50%

Down

Live

·Bitcoin

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

20%

chance

Yes

$120K Vol.

Tigers

89%

Blue Jays

12%

Tigers

Blue Jays

Top 5th

$894K Vol.

·MLB

Phillies

59%

Nationals

42%

Phillies

Nationals

Top 7th

$741K Vol.

·MLB

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Good Day

94%

Yes94%No6%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

91%

Yes91%No10%

Good Day

94%

Yes94%No6%

AI / Artificial Intelligence

91%

Yes91%No10%

$45K Vol.

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

December 31, 2026

30%

Yes30%No71%

October 31, 2026

17%

Yes17%No84%

December 31, 2026

30%

Yes30%No71%

October 31, 2026

17%

Yes17%No84%

$1M Vol.

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson

88%

Yes88%No13%

Ulf Kristersson

11%

Yes11%No90%

Magdalena Andersson

88%

Yes88%No13%

Ulf Kristersson

11%

Yes11%No90%

$8M Vol.

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke

66%

Yes66%No35%

CDU

27%

Yes27%No74%

Linke

66%

Yes66%No35%

CDU

27%

Yes27%No74%

$4M Vol.

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party

59%

Yes59%No42%

Republican Party

42%

Yes42%No59%

Democratic Party

59%

Yes59%No42%

Republican Party

42%

Yes42%No59%

$5M Vol.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

chance

Yes

$21M Vol.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

AfD

84%

Yes84%No17%

SPD

16%

Yes16%No85%

AfD

84%

Yes84%No17%

SPD

16%

Yes16%No85%

$1M Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.1%

74%

Yes74%No26%

5.2%

38%

Yes38%No63%

5.1%

74%

Yes74%No26%

5.2%

38%

Yes38%No63%

$441K Vol.

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 31

23%

Yes23%No78%

October 31

16%

Yes16%No84%

December 31

23%

Yes23%No78%

October 31

16%

Yes16%No84%

$14M Vol.

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)

56%

Yes56%No44%

Ken Paxton (R)

46%

Yes46%No55%

James Talarico (D)

56%

Yes56%No44%

Ken Paxton (R)

46%

Yes46%No55%

$1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No31%

November 30, 2027

66%

Yes66%No34%

December 31, 2027

70%

Yes70%No31%

November 30, 2027

66%

Yes66%No34%

$8M Vol.

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic

96%

Yes96%No4%

Google

Yes1%No99%

Anthropic

96%

Yes96%No4%

Google

Yes1%No99%

$3M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 31

63%

Yes63%No38%

October 31

33%

Yes33%No68%

December 31

63%

Yes63%No38%

October 31

33%

Yes33%No68%

$29M Vol.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot

53%

Yes53%No47%

Benjamin Netanyahu

30%

Yes30%No71%

Gadi Eizenkot

53%

Yes53%No47%

Benjamin Netanyahu

30%

Yes30%No71%

$38M Vol.

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep

56%

Yes56%No44%

R Senate, D House

33%

Yes33%No68%

Democrats Sweep

56%

Yes56%No44%

R Senate, D House

33%

Yes33%No68%

$12M Vol.

Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?

Scott Jennings

26%

Yes26%No74%

Anna Kelly

15%

Yes15%No85%

Scott Jennings

26%

Yes26%No74%

Anna Kelly

15%

Yes15%No85%

$428K Vol.

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 31

27%

Yes27%No74%

October 31

12%

Yes12%No89%

December 31

27%

Yes27%No74%

October 31

12%

Yes12%No89%

$7M Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

51%

Yes51%No49%

Marco Rubio

16%

Yes16%No84%

J.D. Vance

51%

Yes51%No49%

Marco Rubio

16%

Yes16%No84%

$704M Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

19%

Yes19%No81%

Gavin Newsom

18%

Yes18%No82%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

19%

Yes19%No81%

Gavin Newsom

18%

Yes18%No82%

$1B Vol.

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)

76%

Yes76%No25%

New People (NL)

20%

Yes20%No80%

United Russia (ER)

76%

Yes76%No25%

New People (NL)

20%

Yes20%No80%

$29M Vol.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) card icon

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

100%

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen

36%

Yes36%No64%

Édouard Philippe

26%

Yes26%No75%

Marine Le Pen

36%

Yes36%No64%

Édouard Philippe

26%

Yes26%No75%

$134M Vol.

Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?

68,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

70,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

68,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

70,000

100%

Yes100%No<1%

$943K Vol.

·Bitcoin

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

↓ $100

76%

Yes76%No24%

↓ $95

49%

Yes49%No52%

↓ $100

76%

Yes76%No24%

↓ $95

49%

Yes49%No52%

$5M Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

↑ 77,500

70%

Yes70%No31%

↓ 72,500

54%

Yes54%No47%

↑ 77,500

70%

Yes70%No31%

↓ 72,500

54%

Yes54%No47%

$7M Vol.

·Bitcoin

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

Barcelona

20%

Yes20%No81%

Bayern Munich

16%

Yes16%No85%

Barcelona

20%

Yes20%No81%

Bayern Munich

16%

Yes16%No85%

$34M Vol.

What price will Ethereum hit in September?

↑ 2,500

68%

Yes68%No32%

↓ 2,300

66%

Yes66%No35%

↑ 2,500

68%

Yes68%No32%

↓ 2,300

66%

Yes66%No35%

$3M Vol.

·Ethereum

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 31

Yes4%No96%

September 30

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

December 31

Yes4%No96%

September 30

<1%

Yes<1%No100%

$68M Vol.

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Los Angeles Rams

12%

Yes12%No89%

Buffalo Bills

11%

Yes11%No90%

Los Angeles Rams

12%

Yes12%No89%

Buffalo Bills

11%

Yes11%No90%

$56M Vol.

Athletics

33%

Rays

68%

Athletics

Rays

$544K Vol.

·MLB

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro

53%

Yes53%No47%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

46%

Yes46%No55%

Flávio Bolsonaro

53%

Yes53%No47%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

46%

Yes46%No55%

$150M Vol.

Polymarket | The World’s Largest Prediction Market™

Featured markets

All markets

Fed Decision in September?

BTC Up or Down 5m

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Berlin State Election Winner

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Texas Senate Election Winner

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?

Next French Presidential Election

Bitcoin above ___ on September 16?

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?

What price will Bitcoin hit in September?

UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion

What price will Ethereum hit in September?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Brazil Presidential Election