Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in the 2026 Lebanon war, ignited March 2 by Hezbollah rocket and drone strikes on Israel prompting widespread Israeli airstrikes including recent Beirut attacks, have stalled Lebanese government disarmament efforts under UN Resolution 1701. The Lebanese Armed Forces completed nearly 95% of phase one south of the Litani River post-2024 ceasefire, but Hezbollah rejected February's four-month timeline for phase two northward, deeming it a "grave sin." Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's early March order for army enforcement of a Hezbollah military ban and border security remains unimplemented amid escalation, with over 100 recent deaths fueling trader consensus on slim near-term disarmament prospects. US FY26 NDAA review by June 30 could condition aid on progress, while Israel signals potential southern occupation absent compliance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$923,945 交易量
2026-03-31
12月31日
23%
$923,945 交易量
12月31日
$17,352 交易量
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in the 2026 Lebanon war, ignited March 2 by Hezbollah rocket and drone strikes on Israel prompting widespread Israeli airstrikes including recent Beirut attacks, have stalled Lebanese government disarmament efforts under UN Resolution 1701. The Lebanese Armed Forces completed nearly 95% of phase one south of the Litani River post-2024 ceasefire, but Hezbollah rejected February's four-month timeline for phase two northward, deeming it a "grave sin." Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's early March order for army enforcement of a Hezbollah military ban and border security remains unimplemented amid escalation, with over 100 recent deaths fueling trader consensus on slim near-term disarmament prospects. US FY26 NDAA review by June 30 could condition aid on progress, while Israel signals potential southern occupation absent compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
交易量
$923,945结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in the 2026 Lebanon war, ignited March 2 by Hezbollah rocket and drone strikes on Israel prompting widespread Israeli airstrikes including recent Beirut attacks, have stalled Lebanese government disarmament efforts under UN Resolution 1701. The Lebanese Armed Forces completed nearly 95% of phase one south of the Litani River post-2024 ceasefire, but Hezbollah rejected February's four-month timeline for phase two northward, deeming it a "grave sin." Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's early March order for army enforcement of a Hezbollah military ban and border security remains unimplemented amid escalation, with over 100 recent deaths fueling trader consensus on slim near-term disarmament prospects. US FY26 NDAA review by June 30 could condition aid on progress, while Israel signals potential southern occupation absent compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
交易量
$923,945结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Israel-Hezbollah hostilities in the 2026 Lebanon war, ignited March 2 by Hezbollah rocket and drone strikes on Israel prompting widespread Israeli airstrikes including recent Beirut attacks, have stalled Lebanese government disarmament efforts under UN Resolution 1701. The Lebanese Armed Forces completed nearly 95% of phase one south of the Litani River post-2024 ceasefire, but Hezbollah rejected February's four-month timeline for phase two northward, deeming it a "grave sin." Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's early March order for army enforcement of a Hezbollah military ban and border security remains unimplemented amid escalation, with over 100 recent deaths fueling trader consensus on slim near-term disarmament prospects. US FY26 NDAA review by June 30 could condition aid on progress, while Israel signals potential southern occupation absent compliance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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