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政治·联合国

谁将成为下一任联合国秘书长？

Market icon
政治·联合国

谁将成为下一任联合国秘书长？

雷贝卡·格林斯潘 40.3%

玛丽亚·费尔南达·埃斯皮诺萨·加尔塞斯 29.0%

杰辛达·阿德恩 27.7%

米歇尔·巴切莱特 22%

Polymarket

$365 交易量

雷贝卡·格林斯潘 40.3%

玛丽亚·费尔南达·埃斯皮诺萨·加尔塞斯 29.0%

杰辛达·阿德恩 27.7%

米歇尔·巴切莱特 22%

Polymarket

$365 交易量

雷贝卡·格林斯潘

$0 交易量

40%

玛丽亚·费尔南达·埃斯皮诺萨·加尔塞斯

$365 交易量

29%

杰辛达·阿德恩

$0 交易量

28%

米歇尔·巴切莱特

$0 交易量

22%

克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃

$0 交易量

24%

大卫·乔克万卡

$0 交易量

2%

武克·耶雷米奇

$0 交易量

2%

Colombe Cahen-Salvador

$0 交易量

2%

阿希姆·施泰纳

$0 交易量

1%

艾丽西亚·巴尔塞纳

$0 交易量

7%

Bruno Donat

$0 交易量

30%

米娅·莫特利

$0 交易量

38%

拉斐尔·格罗西

$0 交易量

38%

阿米娜·穆罕默德

$0 交易量

39%

A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With recent withdrawals of Michelle Bachelet by Chile on March 25 and Virginia Gamba by the Maldives on March 26—amid Latin American leadership shifts—trader consensus has tightened around experienced UN officials Rebeca Grynspan, recently nominated by Costa Rica as UNCTAD Secretary-General, and Amina Mohammed, the current Deputy Secretary-General, alongside Rafael Grossi of the IAEA and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley. This bunched positioning at 37-40% reflects an opaque selection process requiring P5 consensus via Security Council straw polls starting July 2026, regional rotation favoring Latin America and the Caribbean, and momentum for the first female Secretary-General. Separation could emerge from April 20 interactive dialogues, P5 endorsements, or further withdrawals before the April 1 nomination deadline.

With recent withdrawals of Michelle Bachelet by Chile on March 25 and Virginia Gamba by the Maldives on March 26—amid Latin American leadership shifts—trader consensus has tightened around experienced UN officials Rebeca Grynspan, recently nominated by Costa Rica as UNCTAD Secretary-General, and Amina Mohammed, the current Deputy Secretary-General, alongside Rafael Grossi of the IAEA and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley. This bunched positioning at 37-40% reflects an opaque selection process requiring P5 consensus via Security Council straw polls starting July 2026, regional rotation favoring Latin America and the Caribbean, and momentum for the first female Secretary-General. Separation could emerge from April 20 interactive dialogues, P5 endorsements, or further withdrawals before the April 1 nomination deadline.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.With recent withdrawals of Michelle Bachelet by Chile on March 25 and Virginia Gamba by the Maldives on March 26—amid Latin American leadership shifts—trader consensus has tightened around experienced UN officials Rebeca Grynspan, recently nominated by Costa Rica as UNCTAD Secretary-General, and Amina Mohammed, the current Deputy Secretary-General, alongside Rafael Grossi of the IAEA and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley. This bunched positioning at 37-40% reflects an opaque selection process requiring P5 consensus via Security Council straw polls starting July 2026, regional rotation favoring Latin America and the Caribbean, and momentum for the first female Secretary-General. Separation could emerge from April 20 interactive dialogues, P5 endorsements, or further withdrawals before the April 1 nomination deadline.

With recent withdrawals of Michelle Bachelet by Chile on March 25 and Virginia Gamba by the Maldives on March 26—amid Latin American leadership shifts—trader consensus has tightened around experienced UN officials Rebeca Grynspan, recently nominated by Costa Rica as UNCTAD Secretary-General, and Amina Mohammed, the current Deputy Secretary-General, alongside Rafael Grossi of the IAEA and Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley. This bunched positioning at 37-40% reflects an opaque selection process requiring P5 consensus via Security Council straw polls starting July 2026, regional rotation favoring Latin America and the Caribbean, and momentum for the first female Secretary-General. Separation could emerge from April 20 interactive dialogues, P5 endorsements, or further withdrawals before the April 1 nomination deadline.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"谁将成为下一任联合国秘书长？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 14 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"雷贝卡·格林斯潘"，概率为 40%，其次是"阿米娜·穆罕默德"，概率为 39%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 40¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 40%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"谁将成为下一任联合国秘书长？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Dec 12, 2025上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"谁将成为下一任联合国秘书长？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 14 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"谁将成为下一任联合国秘书长？"的当前领先者是"雷贝卡·格林斯潘"，概率为 40%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 40%。紧随其后的结果是"阿米娜·穆罕默德"，概率为 39%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"谁将成为下一任联合国秘书长？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。