Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's record-high national approval rating of 74%, per February Morning Consult polling, drives trader consensus to an 81% implied probability for a Republican victory in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. The moderate Scott, who has won five terms in the deep-blue state by leveraging cross-party support on issues like property taxes and education, leads GOP primary markets at 79% without formally announcing re-election as of late March. No prominent Democratic challengers have declared, leaving the field fragmented ahead of the August primary; historical incumbency advantages and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a strong nominee or scandal could narrow the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
80%
民主党
18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$2,370 交易量
80%
民主党
$5,189 交易量
18%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's record-high national approval rating of 74%, per February Morning Consult polling, drives trader consensus to an 81% implied probability for a Republican victory in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. The moderate Scott, who has won five terms in the deep-blue state by leveraging cross-party support on issues like property taxes and education, leads GOP primary markets at 79% without formally announcing re-election as of late March. No prominent Democratic challengers have declared, leaving the field fragmented ahead of the August primary; historical incumbency advantages and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a strong nominee or scandal could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$7,559结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's record-high national approval rating of 74%, per February Morning Consult polling, drives trader consensus to an 81% implied probability for a Republican victory in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. The moderate Scott, who has won five terms in the deep-blue state by leveraging cross-party support on issues like property taxes and education, leads GOP primary markets at 79% without formally announcing re-election as of late March. No prominent Democratic challengers have declared, leaving the field fragmented ahead of the August primary; historical incumbency advantages and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a strong nominee or scandal could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$7,559结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott's record-high national approval rating of 74%, per February Morning Consult polling, drives trader consensus to an 81% implied probability for a Republican victory in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election. The moderate Scott, who has won five terms in the deep-blue state by leveraging cross-party support on issues like property taxes and education, leads GOP primary markets at 79% without formally announcing re-election as of late March. No prominent Democratic challengers have declared, leaving the field fragmented ahead of the August primary; historical incumbency advantages and weak opposition sustain the lopsided odds, though a strong nominee or scandal could narrow the gap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题