Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 78% implied probability for Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat, driven by national Democratic overperformance in special elections—including a key March 25 Florida state House flip—and Virginia Democrats' supermajority in the state legislature following their 2025 sweep of 13-plus seats. This momentum fuels bets on the April 21 special election referendum approving a constitutional amendment to enable legislative redistricting of congressional maps, potentially weakening the R+12 district's boundaries ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Rep. Ben Cline (R) advances unopposed in the August 4 primary against a competitive Democratic field including Beth Macy and Ken Mitchell, despite Cline's 26-point 2024 victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$32,432 交易量
$32,432 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
78%
共和党
17%
$32,432 交易量
$32,432 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$19,814 交易量
78%
共和党
$12,618 交易量
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 78% implied probability for Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat, driven by national Democratic overperformance in special elections—including a key March 25 Florida state House flip—and Virginia Democrats' supermajority in the state legislature following their 2025 sweep of 13-plus seats. This momentum fuels bets on the April 21 special election referendum approving a constitutional amendment to enable legislative redistricting of congressional maps, potentially weakening the R+12 district's boundaries ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Rep. Ben Cline (R) advances unopposed in the August 4 primary against a competitive Democratic field including Beth Macy and Ken Mitchell, despite Cline's 26-point 2024 victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$32,432结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 78% implied probability for Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat, driven by national Democratic overperformance in special elections—including a key March 25 Florida state House flip—and Virginia Democrats' supermajority in the state legislature following their 2025 sweep of 13-plus seats. This momentum fuels bets on the April 21 special election referendum approving a constitutional amendment to enable legislative redistricting of congressional maps, potentially weakening the R+12 district's boundaries ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Rep. Ben Cline (R) advances unopposed in the August 4 primary against a competitive Democratic field including Beth Macy and Ken Mitchell, despite Cline's 26-point 2024 victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,432结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the Democratic Party at 78% implied probability for Virginia's 6th Congressional District House seat, driven by national Democratic overperformance in special elections—including a key March 25 Florida state House flip—and Virginia Democrats' supermajority in the state legislature following their 2025 sweep of 13-plus seats. This momentum fuels bets on the April 21 special election referendum approving a constitutional amendment to enable legislative redistricting of congressional maps, potentially weakening the R+12 district's boundaries ahead of the November 3 general election. Incumbent Rep. Ben Cline (R) advances unopposed in the August 4 primary against a competitive Democratic field including Beth Macy and Ken Mitchell, despite Cline's 26-point 2024 victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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