Amid the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran now on day 35, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 10 but rises to 61% by June 30, driven by persistent military escalations like recent US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Tehran's claims of downing US jets, offsetting diplomatic signals. Key recent developments include the US 15-point peace plan sent March 24, failed mediation push for an Islamabad meeting despite March 29 foreign ministers' talks, and White House envoy Steve Witkoff's late March hints at imminent sessions that did not occur. Iran's President Pezeshkian signaled openness via letter April 1, while Pakistan continues pursuing hosted negotiations; war fatigue and indirect channels via intermediaries could tip probabilities higher if de-escalation emerges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$1,296,164 交易量
2026-04-30
4月10日
4%
4月30日
21%
6月30日
60%
$1,296,164 交易量
4月10日
$82,568 交易量
4%
4月30日
$184,362 交易量
21%
6月30日
$44,223 交易量
60%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran now on day 35, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 10 but rises to 61% by June 30, driven by persistent military escalations like recent US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Tehran's claims of downing US jets, offsetting diplomatic signals. Key recent developments include the US 15-point peace plan sent March 24, failed mediation push for an Islamabad meeting despite March 29 foreign ministers' talks, and White House envoy Steve Witkoff's late March hints at imminent sessions that did not occur. Iran's President Pezeshkian signaled openness via letter April 1, while Pakistan continues pursuing hosted negotiations; war fatigue and indirect channels via intermediaries could tip probabilities higher if de-escalation emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
交易量
$1,296,164结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran now on day 35, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 10 but rises to 61% by June 30, driven by persistent military escalations like recent US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Tehran's claims of downing US jets, offsetting diplomatic signals. Key recent developments include the US 15-point peace plan sent March 24, failed mediation push for an Islamabad meeting despite March 29 foreign ministers' talks, and White House envoy Steve Witkoff's late March hints at imminent sessions that did not occur. Iran's President Pezeshkian signaled openness via letter April 1, while Pakistan continues pursuing hosted negotiations; war fatigue and indirect channels via intermediaries could tip probabilities higher if de-escalation emerges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,296,164结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 12, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran now on day 35, trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low 4% chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 10 but rises to 61% by June 30, driven by persistent military escalations like recent US strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Tehran's claims of downing US jets, offsetting diplomatic signals. Key recent developments include the US 15-point peace plan sent March 24, failed mediation push for an Islamabad meeting despite March 29 foreign ministers' talks, and White House envoy Steve Witkoff's late March hints at imminent sessions that did not occur. Iran's President Pezeshkian signaled openness via letter April 1, while Pakistan continues pursuing hosted negotiations; war fatigue and indirect channels via intermediaries could tip probabilities higher if de-escalation emerges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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