Incumbent Republican Rep. Greg Murphy holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for the NC-03 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and R+10 partisan voting index. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 3 primary after dominating prior cycles with 77% in 2024, bolstered by over $2 million in cash on hand. Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who narrowly won his primary 57%-43% over Allison Jaslow with Congressional Black Caucus PAC backing, faces steep barriers in a district Trump would carry by 14 points, underscoring limited path to victory absent a major national wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$11,128 交易量
$11,128 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
86%
民主党
14%
$11,128 交易量
$11,128 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$8,623 交易量
86%
民主党
$2,505 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Greg Murphy holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for the NC-03 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and R+10 partisan voting index. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 3 primary after dominating prior cycles with 77% in 2024, bolstered by over $2 million in cash on hand. Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who narrowly won his primary 57%-43% over Allison Jaslow with Congressional Black Caucus PAC backing, faces steep barriers in a district Trump would carry by 14 points, underscoring limited path to victory absent a major national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$11,128结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rep. Greg Murphy holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for the NC-03 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and R+10 partisan voting index. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 3 primary after dominating prior cycles with 77% in 2024, bolstered by over $2 million in cash on hand. Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who narrowly won his primary 57%-43% over Allison Jaslow with Congressional Black Caucus PAC backing, faces steep barriers in a district Trump would carry by 14 points, underscoring limited path to victory absent a major national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,128结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rep. Greg Murphy holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 85.5% implied probability for the NC-03 House general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's Solid Republican rating from Cook Political Report and R+10 partisan voting index. Murphy advanced unopposed in the March 3 primary after dominating prior cycles with 77% in 2024, bolstered by over $2 million in cash on hand. Democrat Raymond Smith Jr., who narrowly won his primary 57%-43% over Allison Jaslow with Congressional Black Caucus PAC backing, faces steep barriers in a district Trump would carry by 14 points, underscoring limited path to victory absent a major national wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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