Since his early March appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's death in a February US-Israeli airstrike, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—defined by authentic new photos or videos—despite issuing statements like yesterday's IRGC Navy warning of "new bitter defeats" for the US amid surging Strait of Hormuz tensions. Reports of his injuries from the same Tehran residence strike, including facial disfigurement and leg trauma, plus security risks in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, explain trader consensus favoring low near-term probabilities, with historical low-profile precedent and unfulfilled speech anticipations (e.g., April 9 mourning). Upcoming diplomatic talks or escalations could prompt a debut, but uncertainty persists.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,269,864 交易量
2026-04-30
4月30日
8%
5月31日
31%
$1,269,864 交易量
4月30日
$508,130 交易量
8%
5月31日
$145,928 交易量
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Since his early March appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's death in a February US-Israeli airstrike, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—defined by authentic new photos or videos—despite issuing statements like yesterday's IRGC Navy warning of "new bitter defeats" for the US amid surging Strait of Hormuz tensions. Reports of his injuries from the same Tehran residence strike, including facial disfigurement and leg trauma, plus security risks in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, explain trader consensus favoring low near-term probabilities, with historical low-profile precedent and unfulfilled speech anticipations (e.g., April 9 mourning). Upcoming diplomatic talks or escalations could prompt a debut, but uncertainty persists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
交易量
$1,269,864结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Since his early March appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's death in a February US-Israeli airstrike, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—defined by authentic new photos or videos—despite issuing statements like yesterday's IRGC Navy warning of "new bitter defeats" for the US amid surging Strait of Hormuz tensions. Reports of his injuries from the same Tehran residence strike, including facial disfigurement and leg trauma, plus security risks in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, explain trader consensus favoring low near-term probabilities, with historical low-profile precedent and unfulfilled speech anticipations (e.g., April 9 mourning). Upcoming diplomatic talks or escalations could prompt a debut, but uncertainty persists.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
交易量
$1,269,864结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Since his early March appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei's death in a February US-Israeli airstrike, Mojtaba Khamenei has made no verified public appearance—defined by authentic new photos or videos—despite issuing statements like yesterday's IRGC Navy warning of "new bitter defeats" for the US amid surging Strait of Hormuz tensions. Reports of his injuries from the same Tehran residence strike, including facial disfigurement and leg trauma, plus security risks in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, explain trader consensus favoring low near-term probabilities, with historical low-profile precedent and unfulfilled speech anticipations (e.g., April 9 mourning). Upcoming diplomatic talks or escalations could prompt a debut, but uncertainty persists.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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