Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold encompassing St. Louis with a D+29 partisan voting index, continues to favor Democrats at 92% implied probability following Wesley Bell's decisive August primary victory over incumbent Cori Bush, capturing 56% of the vote as a centrist former prosecutor. Republican nominee Curtis Vaughn faces steep historical barriers, as the district has delivered Democratic House wins exceeding 70% in recent cycles amid low GOP turnout. No polls or recent developments indicate competitiveness, with traders pricing in the entrenched partisan lean and incumbency-like stability for Bell ahead of the November 5 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a national Republican turnout surge, or unforeseen voter shifts could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
92%
共和党
$4,940 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold encompassing St. Louis with a D+29 partisan voting index, continues to favor Democrats at 92% implied probability following Wesley Bell's decisive August primary victory over incumbent Cori Bush, capturing 56% of the vote as a centrist former prosecutor. Republican nominee Curtis Vaughn faces steep historical barriers, as the district has delivered Democratic House wins exceeding 70% in recent cycles amid low GOP turnout. No polls or recent developments indicate competitiveness, with traders pricing in the entrenched partisan lean and incumbency-like stability for Bell ahead of the November 5 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a national Republican turnout surge, or unforeseen voter shifts could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$4,940结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold encompassing St. Louis with a D+29 partisan voting index, continues to favor Democrats at 92% implied probability following Wesley Bell's decisive August primary victory over incumbent Cori Bush, capturing 56% of the vote as a centrist former prosecutor. Republican nominee Curtis Vaughn faces steep historical barriers, as the district has delivered Democratic House wins exceeding 70% in recent cycles amid low GOP turnout. No polls or recent developments indicate competitiveness, with traders pricing in the entrenched partisan lean and incumbency-like stability for Bell ahead of the November 5 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a national Republican turnout surge, or unforeseen voter shifts could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,940结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 1st Congressional District, a reliably Democratic stronghold encompassing St. Louis with a D+29 partisan voting index, continues to favor Democrats at 92% implied probability following Wesley Bell's decisive August primary victory over incumbent Cori Bush, capturing 56% of the vote as a centrist former prosecutor. Republican nominee Curtis Vaughn faces steep historical barriers, as the district has delivered Democratic House wins exceeding 70% in recent cycles amid low GOP turnout. No polls or recent developments indicate competitiveness, with traders pricing in the entrenched partisan lean and incumbency-like stability for Bell ahead of the November 5 general election. Late-breaking scandals, a national Republican turnout surge, or unforeseen voter shifts could narrow the gap, though such scenarios remain low-probability outliers.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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